Altora Analytics

Today's Board

Every fixture the model priced today — all of them, not the five that made a card — ordered by how far the model sits from the market. Probabilities are its own; odds are shown for context only.

56fixtures

19competitions

3markets

19 Octboard date

Today’s cards

For each market: the daily card we posted (the model's five most confident calls — analysis, nothing staked) and the backed selections (value and probability picks that cleared our thresholds — the ones the record backs). Then every accumulator built today, and below that the full board of every fixture the model priced. Jump to: Match Result · Over 2.5 goals · Both teams to score · Correct score · Accumulators · Full board

Match Result

The daily card · top five by probability

No card yet today — it posts each morning once prices are in.

Backed selections · value & probability

None published today — nothing cleared the thresholds.

Over 2.5 goals

The daily card · top five by probability

1Over 2.5Jong Ajax v De Graafschap · Eerste Divisie · 19:0066%1.30
2Over 2.5Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş · Süper Lig · 18:0064%1.53
3Over 2.5Jong PSV U21 v Dordrecht · Eerste Divisie · 19:0063%1.40
4Over 2.5Viborg v FC Midtjylland · Superliga · 18:0061%1.57
5Under 2.5Sarmiento Junin v Barracas Central · Argentina Primera · 23:0060%1.40

Backed selections · value & probability

None published today — nothing cleared the thresholds.

Both teams to score

The daily card · top five by probability

1Both teams to score — YesTrabzonspor v Beşiktaş · Süper Lig · 18:0064%1.44
2Both teams to score — YesJong PSV U21 v Dordrecht · Eerste Divisie · 19:0062%1.36
3Both teams to score — YesViborg v FC Midtjylland · Superliga · 18:0061%1.50
4Both teams to score — YesJong Utrecht v Roda · Eerste Divisie · 19:0061%1.57

Backed selections · value & probability

None published today — nothing cleared the thresholds.

Correct score

The daily card · the five most confident fixtures, three likeliest scorelines each (gold = best value)

1Sarmiento Junin v Barracas CentralArgentina Primera · 23:001–115%5.51–012%5.50–010%5.5
2Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de SantiagoArgentina Primera · 23:001–115%61–013%5.50–010%6.5
3SC Braga v GIL VicentePrimeira Liga · 20:151–014%61–113%72–011%7
4Parma v TorinoSerie A · 19:451–114%61–010%8.50–110%7
5Al Shabab v Al-Faisaly FCSaudi Pro League · 19:001–112%82–110%8.51–010%9

Published scorelines · value

Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-Hazm — 2–1Saudi Pro LeagueValue · PASS9%13 · EV +17%
Jong PSV U21 v Dordrecht — 2–0Eerste DivisieValue · PASS7%15 · EV +6%

Every fixture’s correct score prediction ↓

Accumulators every acca built today

3-fold3 legs · 2.41 combined · model 41% to land

Over 1.5Corinthians v Vitoria · Brasileirão Série A1.36
Over 1.5Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF · Allsvenskan1.33
Over 1.5Monza v Cagliari · Serie A1.33

4-fold4 legs · 4.35 combined · model 26% to land

Over 1.5Getafe v Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1.50
Under 3.5Rodez v Montpellier · Ligue 21.44
Celta de Vigo II or drawCelta de Vigo II v Tenerife · La Liga 21.44
Over 1.5Parma v Torino · Serie A1.40

6-fold6 legs · 8.77 combined · model 8% to land

Over 1.5SC Braga v GIL Vicente · Primeira Liga1.30
Under 3.5Tottenham v Coventry · Premier League1.57
Over 1.5Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de Santiago · Argentina Primera1.44
Over 2.5Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş · Süper Lig1.53
Over 2.5Jong Ajax v De Graafschap · Eerste Divisie1.30
Under 3.5Jong Utrecht v Roda · Eerste Divisie1.50

Match double · result + BTTS2 legs · 12.42 combined · model 7% to land

Jong PSV U21 win + Both teams to score — YesJong PSV U21 v Dordrecht · Eerste Divisie2.86
Viborg win + Both teams to score — YesViborg v FC Midtjylland · Superliga4.35

Match result, both teams to score & over/under 2.5

vs mkt	Call	KO	Fixture	Home	Draw	Away	BTTS yes	Over 2.5
+20pp	39%Bodo/Glimt	20:00	Napoli v Bodo/Glimt⚑UEFA Champions League	37%1.62	24%4.10	39%5.00	60%1.53	59%1.50
+12pp	43%Viborg	18:00	Viborg v FC MidtjyllandSuperliga	43%3.00	27%3.60	31%2.15	61%1.50	62%1.53
+10pp	45%Celta de Vigo II	19:30	Celta de Vigo II v TenerifeSegunda División	45%2.62	29%3.00	26%2.75	55%1.80	49%2.10
+9pp	73%Al-Nassr	19:00	Al-Nassr v NEOMPro League	73%1.42	16%4.75	11%5.25	56%1.67	70%1.50
+9pp	42%Rodez	19:45	Rodez v MontpellierLigue 2	42%2.75	26%3.30	32%2.20	55%1.57	49%1.62
+9pp	38%Rochdale	19:45	Rochdale v GrimsbyLeague Two	38%3.20	27%3.40	35%2.10	60%1.62	47%1.73
+8pp	43%Salford City	19:45	Bristol Rovers v Salford CityLeague Two	28%2.60	28%3.25	43%2.60	57%1.53	50%1.73
+7pp	45%Trabzonspor	18:00	Trabzonspor v BeşiktaşSüper Lig	45%2.45	22%3.50	33%2.50	64%1.44	68%1.53
+6pp	39%Degerfors IF	18:00	Degerfors IF v Kalmar FFAllsvenskan	39%2.90	25%3.30	36%2.38	55%1.75	54%2.05
+6pp	48%Cambridge United	19:45	Cambridge United v WycombeLeague One	48%2.20	26%3.40	27%3.00	56%1.57	52%1.70
+6pp	46%Mansfield Town	19:45	AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield TownLeague One	27%3.00	26%3.30	46%2.30	54%1.67	53%1.85
+5pp	65%Huddersfield	19:45	Huddersfield v PeterboroughLeague One	65%1.57	20%4.33	15%5.00	50%1.57	52%1.48
+5pp	54%Oxford United	19:45	Oxford United v WiganLeague One	54%1.91	27%3.70	20%3.60	50%1.70	45%1.80
+4pp	36%Gillingham	20:00	Gillingham v Port ValeLeague Two	36%3.00	32%3.25	32%2.35	48%1.80	40%2.00
+4pp	45%Monza	17:30	Monza v CagliariSerie A (Italy)	45%2.30	27%3.20	28%3.20	50%1.80	51%2.00
+3pp	44%Fleetwood Town	19:45	Cheltenham v Fleetwood TownLeague Two	29%2.90	28%3.40	44%2.30	55%1.67	53%1.80
+3pp	67%Liverpool	20:00	Liverpool v VillarrealUEFA Champions League	67%1.48	18%4.50	15%6.25	60%1.62	56%1.50
+3pp	65%Barnet	19:45	Barnet v Swindon TownLeague Two	65%1.50	20%4.20	15%5.75	58%1.62	59%1.50
+2pp	46%Jong PSV U21	19:00	Jong PSV U21 v DordrechtEerste Divisie	46%2.15	25%3.75	28%3.10	60%1.40	59%1.44
+2pp	63%Al-Qadisiyah FC	16:10	Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League	18%4.75	19%4.50	63%1.48	50%1.57	62%1.44
+2pp	39%Exeter City	19:45	Exeter City v CreweLeague Two	39%2.50	31%3.25	30%2.70	52%1.73	37%2.05
+2pp	40%Blackpool	19:45	Blackpool v Milton Keynes DonsLeague One	40%2.45	27%3.50	33%2.70	55%1.50	49%1.60
+2pp	43%Northampton	19:45	Northampton v TranmereLeague Two	43%2.25	28%3.25	28%3.10	52%1.80	41%2.00
+2pp	40%Barcelona	20:00	Paris Saint Germain v BarcelonaUEFA Champions League	34%2.45	26%4.20	40%2.45	69%1.22	78%1.20
+1pp	69%Al-Ahli Jeddah	16:05	Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli JeddahPro League	13%7.00	18%4.75	69%1.36	58%1.80	66%1.53
+1pp	44%Deportivo Riestra	01:15	Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina	44%2.25	28%2.90	29%3.90	49%2.25	40%2.88
+1pp	39%Al Kholood	16:20	Abha v Al KholoodPro League	35%2.62	27%3.20	39%2.35	53%1.67	50%1.85
+1pp	52%Newells Old Boys	23:00	Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina	52%1.85	26%3.20	23%5.00	48%2.10	41%2.40
+0pp	45%Atletico Madrid	20:00	VfB Stuttgart v Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League	28%3.30	26%3.60	45%2.10	65%1.44	57%1.53
+0pp	40%Walsall	19:45	Walsall v OldhamLeague Two	40%2.35	29%3.40	31%2.80	57%1.62	47%1.75
+0pp	39%De Graafschap	19:00	Jong Ajax v De GraafschapEerste Divisie	34%2.50	27%3.90	39%2.40	61%1.28	67%1.30
-0pp	38%Partick	19:45	Dunfermline v PartickChampionship (Scotland)	33%2.62	29%3.20	38%2.35	51%1.83	47%2.00
-0pp	59%Chesterfield	19:45	Chesterfield v ColchesterLeague Two	59%1.57	23%4.00	19%5.25	53%1.67	61%1.57
-1pp	60%Luton	19:45	Luton v BarnsleyLeague One	60%1.53	21%4.10	19%5.50	54%1.53	58%1.44
-1pp	35%Stevenage	19:45	Stevenage v PlymouthLeague One	35%2.55	30%3.30	35%2.55	55%1.67	50%1.90
-1pp	38%Shrewsbury	19:45	Crawley Town v ShrewsburyLeague Two	35%2.90	27%3.25	38%2.38	55%1.67	50%1.85
-1pp	36%Rayo Vallecano	20:00	Getafe v Rayo VallecanoLa Liga	35%3.10	30%3.00	36%2.60	54%2.10	51%2.62
-1pp	57%FC Porto	20:00	FC Porto v PSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League	57%1.62	22%4.20	20%5.00	64%1.57	70%1.53
-2pp	38%Torino	19:45	Parma v TorinoSerie A (Italy)	34%3.10	28%3.10	38%2.40	52%1.95	50%2.30
-3pp	64%Ebbsfleet United	19:45	Ebbsfleet United v HorshamNational League - South	64%1.33	20%4.20	16%7.50	54%1.91	58%1.67
-3pp	53%York	19:45	York v Accrington STLeague Two	53%1.67	28%4.00	19%4.50	54%1.62	50%1.62
-3pp	56%Wolves	19:45	Wolves v PortsmouthChampionship (England)	56%1.60	25%4.10	19%5.25	52%1.80	44%1.80
-4pp	37%Sarmiento Junin	23:00	Sarmiento Junin v Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina	37%2.35	34%2.90	29%3.60	50%2.20	39%2.88
-4pp	39%Sheffield Wednesday	19:45	Notts County v Sheffield WednesdayLeague One	34%3.20	27%3.40	39%2.15	51%1.62	49%1.75
-4pp	83%Al-Hilal Saudi FC	19:00	Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-HazmPro League	83%1.07	11%11.00	5%26.00	56%2.25	76%1.25
-6pp	45%Stockport County	19:45	Doncaster v Stockport CountyLeague One	27%3.75	28%3.75	45%1.85	57%1.57	50%1.65
-6pp	53%SC Braga	20:15	SC Braga v GIL VicentePrimeira Liga	53%1.57	27%3.75	20%6.00	50%2.00	47%2.00
-6pp	38%Rotherham	19:45	Rotherham v Newport CountyLeague Two	38%2.10	30%3.40	32%3.30	49%1.73	40%1.95
-7pp	47%Leicester	19:45	Bromley v LeicesterLeague One	30%4.10	24%4.00	47%1.73	58%1.53	52%1.53
-8pp	37%Al-Ittihad FC	19:00	Al-Ettifaq v Al-Ittihad FCPro League	34%2.90	29%3.60	37%2.00	57%1.40	49%1.44
-10pp	36%Bradford	19:45	Burton Albion v BradfordLeague One	34%3.60	29%3.30	36%2.00	50%1.80	39%2.05
-10pp	52%Al Diriyah	16:00	Al Diriyah v Al RiyadhPro League	52%1.44	26%4.10	21%5.75	55%1.83	49%1.67
-11pp	46%Al Shabab	19:00	Al Shabab v Al-Faisaly FCPro League	46%1.57	28%3.80	25%4.75	55%1.62	51%1.57
-11pp	50%Tottenham	20:00	Tottenham v CoventryPremier League	50%1.55	26%4.50	24%5.50	53%1.67	51%1.57
-12pp	47%Corinthians	00:00	Corinthians v VitoriaSerie A (Brazil)	47%1.60	25%3.75	28%6.25	57%2.05	63%2.10
-13pp	39%Roda	19:00	Jong Utrecht v Roda⚑Eerste Divisie	31%4.00	30%3.80	39%1.80	61%1.57	58%1.57

Correct score — every fixture

The model’s three most likely scorelines for all 20 fixtures it priced today, with the bookmaker’s price under each. Gold marks the best value of the three. Even the likeliest scoreline usually lands only about one time in ten.

KO	Fixture	Most likely scorelines
16:05	Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli JeddahSaudi Pro League	0–210%7.51–29%8.50–39%9.5
16:20	Abha v Al KholoodSaudi Pro League	1–113%6.50–19%9.51–29%9.5
17:30	Monza v CagliariSerie A	1–113%61–011%82–19%9.5
18:00	Degerfors IF v Kalmar FFAllsvenskan	1–112%60–110%81–29%9.5
18:00	Trabzonspor v BeşiktaşSüper Lig	1–111%7.52–19%101–28%10
18:00	Viborg v FC MidtjyllandSuperliga	1–110%71–28%9.52–18%11
19:00	Al Shabab v Al-Faisaly FCSaudi Pro League	1–112%82–110%8.51–010%9
19:00	Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-HazmSaudi Pro League	2–010%7.53–010%6.52–19%13
19:00	Jong Ajax v De GraafschapEerste Divisie	1–19%91–28%112–17%12
19:00	Jong PSV U21 v DordrechtEerste Divisie	1–110%82–110%9.52–07%15
19:00	Jong Utrecht v RodaEerste Divisie	1–110%7.51–210%8.50–18%10
19:30	Celta de Vigo II v TenerifeSegunda División	1–113%5.51–09%8.50–19%8.5
19:45	Parma v TorinoSerie A	1–114%61–010%8.50–110%7
19:45	Rodez v MontpellierLigue 2	1–111%71–210%9.50–18%10
20:00	Getafe v Rayo VallecanoLa Liga	1–113%61–011%70–111%6.5
20:00	Tottenham v CoventryPremier League	2–110%91–19%92–09%9.5
20:15	SC Braga v GIL VicentePrimeira Liga	1–014%61–113%72–011%7
23:00	Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de SantiagoArgentina Primera	1–115%61–013%5.50–010%6.5
23:00	Sarmiento Junin v Barracas CentralArgentina Primera	1–115%5.51–012%5.50–010%5.5
00:00	Corinthians v VitoriaBrasileirão Série A	1–112%71–011%62–110%8.5

Free predictions — double chance, over/under 1.5 & 3.5

The markets on the free board, for the same fixtures. Double chance is a banker market, so these are ordered by probability rather than by disagreement.

Pick	KO	Fixture	Double chance	Over 1.5	Over 3.5
95%1X	19:00	Al-Hilal Saudi FC v Al-HazmPro League	95%	89%1.07	50%1.67
89%1X	19:00	Al-Nassr v NEOMPro League	89%1.14	84%1.14	38%2.20
87%X2	16:05	Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli JeddahPro League	87%1.10	81%1.17	41%2.25
85%1X	20:00	Liverpool v VillarrealUEFA Champions League	85%1.12	85%1.14	43%2.10
85%1X	19:45	Barnet v Swindon TownLeague Two	85%1.14	81%1.14	37%2.20
85%1X	19:45	Huddersfield v PeterboroughLeague One	85%1.17	78%1.12	34%2.10
84%1X	19:45	Ebbsfleet United v HorshamNational League - South	84%1.06	80%1.20	34%2.62
82%X2	16:10	Al Taawon v Al-Qadisiyah FCPro League	82%1.17	78%1.12	40%2.00
81%1X	19:45	Chesterfield v ColchesterLeague Two	81%1.17	79%1.17	33%2.38
81%1X	19:45	Luton v BarnsleyLeague One	81%1.14	80%1.11	37%2.00
81%1X	19:45	Wolves v PortsmouthChampionship (England)	81%1.17	73%1.25	24%3.00
81%1X	19:45	York v Accrington STLeague Two	81%1.18	77%1.18	31%2.50
80%1X	19:45	Oxford United v WiganLeague One	80%1.28	70%1.25	23%3.00
80%1X	20:15	SC Braga v GIL VicentePrimeira Liga	80%1.12	71%1.30	24%3.50
80%1X	20:00	FC Porto v PSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League	80%1.17	86%1.17	45%2.30
79%1X	16:00	Al Diriyah v Al RiyadhPro League	79%1.12	74%1.20	27%2.62
78%12	18:00	Trabzonspor v BeşiktaşSüper Lig	78%1.28	84%1.14	43%2.25
77%1X	23:00	Newells Old Boys v Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina	77%1.17	70%1.44	25%4.50
76%1X	20:00	Tottenham v CoventryPremier League	76%1.14	75%1.17	30%2.50
76%12	20:00	Napoli v Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League	76%1.22	85%1.14	44%2.10
76%12	19:45	Bromley v LeicesterLeague One	76%1.22	78%1.14	29%2.20
75%12	00:00	Corinthians v VitoriaSerie A (Brazil)	75%1.28	77%1.36	34%4.00
75%12	18:00	Degerfors IF v Kalmar FFAllsvenskan	75%1.33	77%1.33	28%3.50
75%1X	19:00	Al Shabab v Al-Faisaly FCPro League	75%1.17	75%1.17	28%2.38
75%12	19:00	Jong PSV U21 v DordrechtEerste Divisie	75%1.28	80%1.12	35%2.00
74%12	20:00	Paris Saint Germain v BarcelonaUEFA Champions League	74%1.22	91%1.05	56%1.50
74%12	19:45	Cambridge United v WycombeLeague One	74%1.30	78%1.20	32%2.62
74%1X	19:30	Celta de Vigo II v TenerifeSegunda División	74%1.40	73%1.33	26%3.75
74%12	19:45	AFC Wimbledon v Mansfield TownLeague One	74%1.33	75%1.25	28%3.00
74%12	19:45	Rodez v MontpellierLigue 2	74%1.30	73%1.18	26%2.50
74%12	20:00	VfB Stuttgart v Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League	74%1.28	83%1.14	41%2.20
73%12	18:00	Viborg v FC MidtjyllandSuperliga	73%1.28	81%1.17	38%2.25
73%12	19:45	Blackpool v Milton Keynes DonsLeague One	73%1.28	73%1.17	30%2.38
73%12	19:45	Rochdale v GrimsbyLeague Two	73%1.30	82%1.22	34%2.62
73%12	16:20	Abha v Al KholoodPro League	73%1.33	75%1.25	29%3.00
73%12	19:00	Jong Ajax v De GraafschapEerste Divisie	73%1.25	84%1.08	40%1.73
73%12	19:45	Crawley Town v ShrewsburyLeague Two	73%1.33	78%1.25	27%3.00
73%12	19:45	Notts County v Sheffield WednesdayLeague One	73%1.30	74%1.22	27%2.75
73%X2	19:45	Doncaster v Stockport CountyLeague One	73%1.25	78%1.18	29%2.50
73%12	17:30	Monza v CagliariSerie A (Italy)	73%1.36	76%1.33	31%3.50
72%12	19:45	Cheltenham v Fleetwood TownLeague Two	72%1.30	74%1.25	28%3.00
72%12	01:15	Deportivo Riestra v Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina	72%1.40	64%1.57	20%6.00
72%12	19:45	Bristol Rovers v Salford CityLeague Two	72%1.33	75%1.20	29%2.62
72%12	19:45	Northampton v TranmereLeague Two	72%1.33	72%1.30	23%3.50
72%12	19:45	Parma v TorinoSerie A (Italy)	72%1.36	72%1.40	25%4.33
71%12	19:00	Al-Ettifaq v Al-Ittihad FCPro League	71%1.25	77%1.12	30%2.10
71%12	19:45	Dunfermline v PartickChampionship (Scotland)	71%1.28	72%1.30	24%3.50
71%12	19:45	Walsall v OldhamLeague Two	71%1.30	76%1.22	27%2.75
71%12	19:45	Burton Albion v BradfordLeague One	71%1.33	70%1.30	22%3.50
71%1X	23:00	Sarmiento Junin v Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina	71%1.28	63%1.57	18%6.00
70%12	20:00	Getafe v Rayo VallecanoLa Liga	70%1.36	75%1.53	26%5.00
70%12	19:00	Jong Utrecht v RodaEerste Divisie	70%1.25	81%1.17	36%2.38
70%12	19:45	Stevenage v PlymouthLeague One	70%1.33	75%1.25	29%3.25
70%12	19:45	Rotherham v Newport CountyLeague Two	70%1.30	69%1.28	20%3.25
70%1X	19:45	Exeter City v CreweLeague Two	70%1.44	68%1.33	23%3.50
68%12	20:00	Gillingham v Port ValeLeague Two	68%1.33	69%1.30	18%3.50

“vs mkt” is disagreement, not value. It is the model's probability minus the market's, once the bookmaker's margin is stripped out, in percentage points. Sorting by it puts the fixtures where we most differ from the market at the top, because those are the interesting ones — but our own research found that wider disagreement in these markets is if anything less reliable, not more. A big number here means we disagree, and nothing else.

⚑ marks a big disagreement — the model and the market are 12 or more points apart (2 of today's 56 fixtures). The model only sees results and match statistics; the market also prices team news, injuries, transfers and squad quality. On our own settled record (3,799 match-result predictions, July–October 2026), when the model sat 10–15 points above the market it said 46%, the market said 35% and the result came in 36% of the time. Read a flagged row as “the model hasn't seen something” before you read it as “the market is wrong”.

How to read this. The big number is the model's probability; the small number beneath it is the market's price, shown so you can see the two side by side. Kick-off times are UK. Nothing here is a tip and nothing here is a value call — our own studies found the model beats the market on accuracy in these markets while still losing to the bookmaker's margin, so treat these as forecasts, not selections.

● marks a season opener. When either side has played fewer than three matches this season, the published number is pulled 25% toward the market, because early-season form is thin and the market knows more than we do. 0 of today's 56 fixtures are marked. Everything else is the model alone, from a model that carries no odds features at all.

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