Altora Analysis
Value & probability bets · PASS/FAIL · £10 level stakes. Analysis, not tips. Tracked in the open.
Every prediction remains online. Every result is tracked. Nothing deleted.
Today's board
The daily card · top five by model probability
The free daily card ranks the model's five most confident calls in this market by probability alone. No edge is claimed and no money is staked on them, so they are judged on the two questions that actually apply: were the percentages honest, and what would backing them blindly have cost?
184 reads published since 2026-08-25 · 184 settled · Brier score 0.1959 (lower is better; 0.25 is what predicting 50% on everything scores)
| Model said | Reads | Average stated | Actually happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 18 | 45.1% | 44.4% | -0.7 pts |
| 50 to 60% | 33 | 55.3% | 63.6% | +8.3 pts |
| 60 to 70% | 106 | 65.3% | 80.2% | +14.8 pts |
| 70 to 80% | 27 | 72.5% | 77.8% | +5.3 pts |
| 80 to 90% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 90 to 100% | 0 | – | – | – |
The P&L above is hypothetical: flat £10 on every read at the odds printed on the card. These are analysis, not backed selections — no stake was placed on any of them and none of them appears in the bet record below.
Forecasting accurately and betting profitably are different problems. A model can be well calibrated — the percentages honest, band by band — and still lose money at book prices, because the bookmaker's margin is priced into every quote. Closing that gap is what the EV and probability thresholds below exist to do, and in this market they currently cannot, which is why these reads are published as analysis and nothing is staked on them.
The 1X2 record · level stakes · opener odds
closing-line value: +0.7% avg on 27 of 27 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.7% avg on 27 of 27 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
Backed-vs-rejected separation (the number that judges the thresholds): EV: gap building — backed side has settled 0 of the 30 bets needed · Probability: gap building — backed side has settled 27 of the 30 bets needed
| Selection group | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ EV — flagged, not backed | 2562 | 35% | £-1,729 | -6.7% | +0.5% |
| ⚠️ Probability — flagged, not backed | 2749 | 51% | £-1,220 | -4.4% | +0.2% |
Every game the model priced but the frozen thresholds rejected — tracked and settled so the thresholds are judged, not just the picks. No money on these.
| Selection group | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ EV — flagged, not backed | 60 | 22% | £-152.20 | -25.4% | +2.0% |
| ✅ Probability — backed | 26 | 69% | +£27.60 | +10.6% | +0.8% |
| ⚠️ Probability — flagged, not backed | 58 | 55% | £-59.30 | -10.2% | +0.0% |
| All published | 144 | 44% | £-183.90 | -12.8% | +1.0% |
The Telegram view, judged exactly like the whole board above: ✅ backed selections are the product, ⚠️ flagged selections were sent with their FAIL label and not backed.
All-games tracking began 5 August 2026: the record settles every game on the board, while the Telegram channels receive only the threshold-passing selections (pass-only from 9 August 2026; before that, the top five per approach with pass/fail labels — and before 5 August, rows are the published top fives only). The Published band is what went to Telegram; the blocks above it are the whole board.
The filter is the product, and each avenue is judged separately: PASS is what we actually back, FAIL is what we skipped. If a FAIL block out-earns its PASS block, that threshold is wrong — and you will see it here before we do anything about it. 1 threshold-passing selection(s) emerged in the midday data refresh after posting time: they count in the blocks above but were never sent to Telegram, which is why the published table below can show fewer backed bets.
Level stakes at the odds we flagged when the bet was posted (£10 singles; accumulators £3–£10 by type). Every bet kept — wins and losses. Download the full record (CSV).
Month by month
| Month | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | ✅ EV | ⚠️ EV | ✅ Prob | ⚠️ Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 (early sample) | 56 | £-94 | -16.9% | +1.3% | — | £-68 (28) | — | £-27 (28) |
| August 2026 | 1896 | £-579 | -3.1% | +0.4% | — | £-17 (905) | +£14 (5) | £-576 (986) |
| September 2026 | 1995 | £-1,561 | -7.8% | +0.1% | — | £-695 (961) | £-1 (13) | £-864 (1021) |
| October 2026 | 1391 | £-697 | -5.0% | +0.4% | — | £-949 (668) | +£5 (9) | +£247 (714) |
Calendar months for this market, level stakes. The record began in July 2026 with summer leagues only; the big European leagues joined from August 2026, so early months are small samples and the month-to-month shape says more than any single figure. Avenue columns show £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets: ✅ is what that threshold backed, ⚠️ is flagged but not backed, judged separately exactly as in the blocks above.
By league
| League | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | ✅ EV | ⚠️ EV | ✅ Prob | ⚠️ Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Úrvalsdeild | 90 | +£144 | +16.0% | +0.4% | — | +£82 (41) | — | +£63 (49) |
| UEFA Champions League | 78 | +£111 | +14.3% | +0.7% | — | +£46 (39) | +£8 (1) | +£58 (38) |
| Scottish League Two | 103 | +£145 | +14.1% | +0.2% | — | +£69 (50) | +£6 (1) | +£71 (52) |
| Bundesliga | 104 | +£109 | +10.5% | +0.1% | — | +£101 (50) | +£12 (2) | £-4 (52) |
| Süper Lig | 144 | +£117 | +8.1% | +1.7% | — | +£136 (72) | — | £-19 (72) |
| National League | 301 | +£234 | +7.8% | +0.1% | — | +£57 (144) | +£2 (3) | +£175 (154) |
| Serie A | 137 | +£95 | +7.0% | +1.6% | — | +£70 (65) | +£11 (2) | +£14 (70) |
| Jupiler Pro League | 149 | +£102 | +6.9% | -0.1% | — | £-25 (75) | +£6 (1) | +£121 (73) |
| Liga MX | 18 | +£8 | +4.7% | +0.1% | — | +£78 (9) | — | £-69 (9) |
| Ligue 1 | 123 | +£43 | +3.5% | +2.2% | — | +£24 (58) | — | +£19 (65) |
| Brasileirão Série A | 53 | +£17 | +3.3% | +1.5% | — | £-8 (26) | — | +£25 (27) |
| UEFA Europa League | 47 | +£9 | +2.0% | -2.1% | — | £-32 (22) | — | +£42 (25) |
| Eerste Divisie | 212 | +£16 | +0.8% | +0.4% | — | +£11 (100) | +£6 (1) | £-1 (111) |
| 2. Bundesliga | 142 | +£6 | +0.4% | -0.0% | — | £-11 (68) | — | +£17 (74) |
| Scottish Premiership | 101 | £-14 | -1.4% | -0.3% | — | +£50 (51) | +£6 (1) | £-69 (49) |
| Championship | 255 | £-39 | -1.5% | +0.5% | — | +£38 (120) | — | £-78 (135) |
| Segunda División | 218 | £-58 | -2.6% | +0.4% | — | £-86 (108) | £-10 (1) | +£38 (109) |
| Scottish Championship | 90 | £-48 | -5.3% | +0.1% | — | £-74 (41) | — | +£26 (49) |
| National League - North | 238 | £-132 | -5.6% | +0.1% | — | £-146 (111) | — | +£14 (127) |
| Veikkausliiga | 122 | £-72 | -5.9% | -0.3% | — | £-25 (59) | +£6 (1) | £-52 (62) |
| Premier League | 132 | £-83 | -6.3% | +0.5% | — | £-19 (61) | — | £-63 (71) |
| Allsvenskan | 162 | £-111 | -6.9% | +0.4% | — | £-39 (79) | +£6 (1) | £-78 (82) |
| National League - South | 274 | £-240 | -8.8% | +0.2% | — | £-63 (138) | — | £-177 (136) |
| Serie B | 136 | £-130 | -9.6% | +0.6% | — | +£68 (62) | +£6 (1) | £-203 (73) |
| Argentina Primera | 78 | £-78 | -9.9% | +1.0% | — | £-58 (38) | — | £-20 (40) |
| League Two | 247 | £-249 | -10.1% | -0.0% | — | £-46 (117) | £-10 (1) | £-194 (129) |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 42 | £-49 | -11.6% | +0.9% | — | £-53 (19) | — | +£4 (23) |
| Eliteserien | 139 | £-166 | -11.9% | +0.2% | — | £-50 (71) | £-10 (1) | £-105 (67) |
| Primeira Liga | 142 | £-178 | -12.5% | -0.4% | — | £-88 (69) | — | £-90 (73) |
| MLS | 60 | £-77 | -12.8% | +1.1% | — | £-70 (29) | — | £-7 (31) |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 102 | £-133 | -13.0% | +1.7% | — | £-180 (50) | +£8 (1) | +£39 (51) |
| La Liga | 173 | £-268 | -15.5% | +0.2% | — | £-218 (81) | — | £-50 (92) |
| Scottish League One | 90 | £-154 | -17.1% | -0.1% | — | £-167 (40) | +£6 (1) | +£8 (49) |
| League One | 223 | £-400 | -17.9% | +0.2% | — | £-236 (102) | £-30 (3) | £-134 (118) |
| Eredivisie | 164 | £-347 | -21.2% | -0.2% | — | £-210 (81) | +£12 (2) | £-150 (81) |
| Ykkönen | 125 | £-281 | -22.5% | +0.0% | — | £-198 (59) | £-10 (1) | £-73 (65) |
| Ligue 2 | 160 | £-362 | -22.6% | -0.4% | — | £-213 (76) | — | £-149 (84) |
| Superliga | 117 | £-267 | -22.8% | +0.4% | — | £-149 (58) | £-10 (1) | £-108 (58) |
| Swiss Super League | 11 | £-33 | -29.6% | +0.9% | — | £-19 (5) | — | £-14 (6) |
| Saudi Pro League | 36 | £-122 | -33.9% | -0.7% | — | £-75 (18) | — | £-48 (18) |
Leagues with at least 5 settled bets in this market. These samples are small: treat the ordering as weather, not climate, until the counts grow. A league where we consistently beat the close will usually earn its ROI in time. Avenue columns show £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets: ✅ is what that threshold backed, ⚠️ is flagged but not backed, judged separately exactly as in the blocks above.
Today's board
The daily card · top five by model probability
The free daily card ranks the model's five most confident calls in this market by probability alone. No edge is claimed and no money is staked on them, so they are judged on the two questions that actually apply: were the percentages honest, and what would backing them blindly have cost?
209 reads published since 2026-08-25 · 208 settled · 1 still awaiting a result or not yet on the settled board · Brier score 0.2330 (lower is better; 0.25 is what predicting 50% on everything scores)
| Model said | Reads | Average stated | Actually happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 50 to 60% | 29 | 56.7% | 58.6% | +2.0 pts |
| 60 to 70% | 123 | 65.5% | 63.4% | -2.1 pts |
| 70 to 80% | 56 | 72.1% | 66.1% | -6.1 pts |
| 80 to 90% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 90 to 100% | 0 | – | – | – |
The P&L above is hypothetical: flat £10 on every read at the odds printed on the card. These are analysis, not backed selections — no stake was placed on any of them and none of them appears in the bet record below.
Forecasting accurately and betting profitably are different problems. A model can be well calibrated — the percentages honest, band by band — and still lose money at book prices, because the bookmaker's margin is priced into every quote. Closing that gap is what the EV and probability thresholds below exist to do, and in this market they currently cannot, which is why these reads are published as analysis and nothing is staked on them.
The OU2.5 record · level stakes · opener odds
closing-line value: -0.2% avg on 35 of 35 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: -3.1% avg on 5 of 5 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.3% avg on 30 of 30 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
Backed-vs-rejected separation (the number that judges the thresholds): EV: gap building — backed side has settled 5 of the 30 bets needed · Probability: backed +2.1% vs rejected -3.1% · gap +5.2 pts
| Selection group | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ EV — flagged, not backed | 1274 | 49% | £-516 | -4.1% | +0.3% |
| ⚠️ Probability — flagged, not backed | 2750 | 59% | £-853 | -3.1% | +0.3% |
Every game the model priced but the frozen thresholds rejected — tracked and settled so the thresholds are judged, not just the picks. No money on these.
| Selection group | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ EV — backed | 5 | 60% | +£4.30 | +8.6% | -3.1% |
| ⚠️ EV — flagged, not backed | 56 | 41% | £-49.00 | -8.8% | -0.3% |
| ✅ Probability — backed | 28 | 64% | +£10.70 | +3.8% | +0.2% |
| ⚠️ Probability — flagged, not backed | 58 | 66% | £-23.50 | -4.1% | +0.0% |
| All published | 147 | 56% | £-57.50 | -3.9% | -0.2% |
The Telegram view, judged exactly like the whole board above: ✅ backed selections are the product, ⚠️ flagged selections were sent with their FAIL label and not backed.
All-games tracking began 5 August 2026: the record settles every game on the board, while the Telegram channels receive only the threshold-passing selections (pass-only from 9 August 2026; before that, the top five per approach with pass/fail labels — and before 5 August, rows are the published top fives only). The Published band is what went to Telegram; the blocks above it are the whole board.
The filter is the product, and each avenue is judged separately: PASS is what we actually back, FAIL is what we skipped. If a FAIL block out-earns its PASS block, that threshold is wrong — and you will see it here before we do anything about it. 2 threshold-passing selection(s) emerged in the midday data refresh after posting time: they count in the blocks above but were never sent to Telegram, which is why the published table below can show fewer backed bets.
Level stakes at the odds we flagged when the bet was posted (£10 singles; accumulators £3–£10 by type). Every bet kept — wins and losses. Download the full record (CSV).
Month by month
| Month | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | ✅ EV | ⚠️ EV | ✅ Prob | ⚠️ Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 (early sample) | 57 | £-78 | -13.6% | -0.2% | +£8 (1) | £-25 (28) | — | £-61 (28) |
| August 2026 | 1382 | £-408 | -3.0% | +0.2% | — | £-287 (390) | £-8 (4) | £-113 (988) |
| September 2026 | 1652 | £-246 | -1.5% | +0.3% | £-13 (3) | £-45 (604) | £-18 (18) | £-171 (1027) |
| October 2026 | 968 | £-627 | -6.5% | +0.4% | +£9 (1) | £-160 (252) | +£33 (8) | £-508 (707) |
Calendar months for this market, level stakes. The record began in July 2026 with summer leagues only; the big European leagues joined from August 2026, so early months are small samples and the month-to-month shape says more than any single figure. Avenue columns show £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets: ✅ is what that threshold backed, ⚠️ is flagged but not backed, judged separately exactly as in the blocks above.
By league
| League | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | ✅ EV | ⚠️ EV | ✅ Prob | ⚠️ Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Super League | 12 | +£34 | +28.7% | +0.5% | — | +£38 (6) | — | £-4 (6) |
| Liga MX | 12 | +£13 | +10.4% | +0.4% | — | +£19 (3) | — | £-7 (9) |
| Ligue 2 | 97 | +£97 | +10.0% | +0.1% | — | +£14 (14) | — | +£83 (83) |
| Scottish League Two | 71 | +£62 | +8.7% | +0.6% | — | £-29 (20) | — | +£90 (51) |
| Süper Lig | 101 | +£84 | +8.3% | +0.9% | +£9 (1) | +£38 (27) | — | +£37 (73) |
| Scottish Premiership | 78 | +£56 | +7.2% | +0.4% | — | +£59 (27) | — | £-3 (51) |
| League Two | 154 | +£76 | +5.0% | +0.0% | £-10 (1) | +£47 (20) | +£2 (3) | +£38 (130) |
| Premier League | 108 | +£45 | +4.2% | +0.3% | — | +£18 (38) | — | +£27 (70) |
| League One | 143 | +£59 | +4.1% | +0.4% | — | +£71 (27) | — | £-13 (116) |
| Bundesliga | 109 | +£44 | +4.0% | -0.3% | +£7 (1) | £-2 (54) | +£19 (3) | +£19 (51) |
| Ligue 1 | 99 | +£39 | +3.9% | +0.2% | — | +£45 (30) | — | £-6 (69) |
| Segunda División | 137 | +£45 | +3.3% | -0.5% | — | +£76 (25) | — | £-31 (112) |
| National League | 218 | +£52 | +2.4% | +0.4% | — | +£75 (60) | +£6 (1) | £-29 (157) |
| Scottish League One | 65 | +£1 | +0.2% | -0.1% | — | £-17 (12) | +£6 (1) | +£13 (52) |
| UEFA Champions League | 77 | £-6 | -0.7% | +1.1% | — | £-50 (38) | +£14 (5) | +£30 (34) |
| La Liga | 136 | £-17 | -1.3% | +0.5% | — | £-37 (44) | — | +£20 (92) |
| Superliga | 101 | £-13 | -1.3% | +0.2% | — | +£43 (42) | +£6 (1) | £-62 (58) |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 72 | £-13 | -1.8% | +0.5% | — | £-28 (22) | — | +£15 (50) |
| Eerste Divisie | 205 | £-44 | -2.1% | -0.2% | — | £-1 (95) | — | £-43 (110) |
| Jupiler Pro League | 104 | £-27 | -2.6% | +1.3% | — | £-20 (30) | £-14 (3) | +£7 (71) |
| Eredivisie | 163 | £-44 | -2.7% | +0.4% | — | £-102 (82) | — | +£58 (81) |
| MLS | 55 | £-16 | -2.9% | +0.6% | — | £-56 (26) | +£6 (1) | +£35 (28) |
| Serie B | 88 | £-30 | -3.4% | -1.1% | — | +£5 (14) | — | £-35 (74) |
| Úrvalsdeild | 96 | £-52 | -5.4% | -0.1% | — | £-8 (49) | £-10 (1) | £-34 (46) |
| Serie A | 101 | £-60 | -6.0% | +0.3% | — | +£12 (29) | +£13 (2) | £-86 (70) |
| 2. Bundesliga | 130 | £-102 | -7.9% | +0.6% | — | £-33 (58) | +£6 (1) | £-76 (71) |
| Championship | 171 | £-135 | -7.9% | +0.0% | — | £-88 (27) | £-10 (1) | £-36 (143) |
| Ykkönen | 136 | £-111 | -8.1% | -0.1% | — | £-70 (70) | — | £-41 (66) |
| National League - South | 183 | £-170 | -9.3% | +0.9% | — | £-21 (44) | £-4 (2) | £-145 (137) |
| Allsvenskan | 132 | £-132 | -10.0% | +0.1% | — | £-21 (50) | £-10 (1) | £-101 (81) |
| Primeira Liga | 104 | £-113 | -10.8% | +1.2% | — | £-45 (32) | — | £-68 (72) |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 35 | £-40 | -11.5% | +1.1% | — | +£3 (12) | — | £-43 (23) |
| National League - North | 153 | £-180 | -11.8% | +0.4% | — | £-9 (27) | — | £-172 (126) |
| Veikkausliiga | 82 | £-122 | -14.9% | +0.6% | — | £-33 (18) | — | £-89 (64) |
| Saudi Pro League | 24 | £-37 | -15.5% | -0.3% | — | £-9 (6) | — | £-28 (18) |
| Scottish Championship | 55 | £-88 | -15.9% | -0.0% | — | £-33 (5) | — | £-54 (50) |
| Brasileirão Série A | 30 | £-48 | -16.2% | +3.3% | — | £-14 (4) | — | £-34 (26) |
| Eliteserien | 133 | £-245 | -18.5% | -0.1% | — | £-240 (63) | £-20 (2) | +£14 (68) |
| UEFA Europa League | 41 | £-90 | -22.1% | +1.5% | £-2 (2) | £-93 (15) | £-4 (2) | +£8 (22) |
| Argentina Primera | 48 | £-127 | -26.5% | -0.8% | — | £-21 (9) | — | £-106 (39) |
Leagues with at least 5 settled bets in this market. These samples are small: treat the ordering as weather, not climate, until the counts grow. A league where we consistently beat the close will usually earn its ROI in time. Avenue columns show £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets: ✅ is what that threshold backed, ⚠️ is flagged but not backed, judged separately exactly as in the blocks above.
Today's board
The daily card · top five by model probability
The free daily card ranks the model's five most confident calls in this market by probability alone. No edge is claimed and no money is staked on them, so they are judged on the two questions that actually apply: were the percentages honest, and what would backing them blindly have cost?
207 reads published since 2026-08-25 · 205 settled · 2 still awaiting a result or not yet on the settled board · Brier score 0.2412 (lower is better; 0.25 is what predicting 50% on everything scores)
| Model said | Reads | Average stated | Actually happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 50 to 60% | 49 | 56.2% | 59.2% | +3.0 pts |
| 60 to 70% | 151 | 64.9% | 60.9% | -4.0 pts |
| 70 to 80% | 5 | 70.9% | 60.0% | -10.9 pts |
| 80 to 90% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 90 to 100% | 0 | – | – | – |
The P&L above is hypothetical: flat £10 on every read at the odds printed on the card. These are analysis, not backed selections — no stake was placed on any of them and none of them appears in the bet record below.
Forecasting accurately and betting profitably are different problems. A model can be well calibrated — the percentages honest, band by band — and still lose money at book prices, because the bookmaker's margin is priced into every quote. Closing that gap is what the EV and probability thresholds below exist to do, and in this market they currently cannot, which is why these reads are published as analysis and nothing is staked on them.
The BTTS record · level stakes · opener odds
closing-line value: +0.9% avg on 222 of 222 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +1.2% avg on 14 of 14 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.9% avg on 208 of 208 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
Backed-vs-rejected separation (the number that judges the thresholds): EV: gap building — backed side has settled 14 of the 30 bets needed · Probability: backed -3.5% vs rejected -7.5% · gap +4.1 pts
| Selection group | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ EV — flagged, not backed | 2610 | 48% | £-1,306 | -5.0% | +0.4% |
| ⚠️ Probability — flagged, not backed | 2536 | 56% | £-1,906 | -7.5% | +0.1% |
Every game the model priced but the frozen thresholds rejected — tracked and settled so the thresholds are judged, not just the picks. No money on these.
| Selection group | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ EV — backed | 14 | 64% | +£38.20 | +27.3% | +1.2% |
| ⚠️ EV — flagged, not backed | 57 | 42% | £-25.60 | -4.5% | +1.0% |
| ✅ Probability — backed | 144 | 55% | £-47.90 | -3.3% | +1.0% |
| ⚠️ Probability — flagged, not backed | 42 | 48% | £-111.20 | -26.5% | -0.6% |
| All published | 257 | 51% | £-146.50 | -5.7% | +0.8% |
The Telegram view, judged exactly like the whole board above: ✅ backed selections are the product, ⚠️ flagged selections were sent with their FAIL label and not backed.
All-games tracking began 5 August 2026: the record settles every game on the board, while the Telegram channels receive only the threshold-passing selections (pass-only from 9 August 2026; before that, the top five per approach with pass/fail labels — and before 5 August, rows are the published top fives only). The Published band is what went to Telegram; the blocks above it are the whole board.
The filter is the product, and each avenue is judged separately: PASS is what we actually back, FAIL is what we skipped. If a FAIL block out-earns its PASS block, that threshold is wrong — and you will see it here before we do anything about it. 64 threshold-passing selection(s) emerged in the midday data refresh after posting time: they count in the blocks above but were never sent to Telegram, which is why the published table below can show fewer backed bets.
Level stakes at the odds we flagged when the bet was posted (£10 singles; accumulators £3–£10 by type). Every bet kept — wins and losses. Download the full record (CSV).
Month by month
| Month | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | ✅ EV | ⚠️ EV | ✅ Prob | ⚠️ Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 (early sample) | 57 | £-42 | -7.4% | +0.4% | — | +£18 (29) | £-23 (4) | £-38 (24) |
| August 2026 | 1873 | £-1,026 | -5.5% | +0.2% | +£20 (4) | £-282 (871) | £-3 (53) | £-761 (945) |
| September 2026 | 2016 | £-1,662 | -8.2% | +0.4% | +£10 (5) | £-1,052 (1002) | £-74 (83) | £-546 (926) |
| October 2026 | 1422 | £-515 | -3.6% | +0.3% | +£9 (5) | +£9 (708) | +£29 (68) | £-562 (641) |
Calendar months for this market, level stakes. The record began in July 2026 with summer leagues only; the big European leagues joined from August 2026, so early months are small samples and the month-to-month shape says more than any single figure. Avenue columns show £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets: ✅ is what that threshold backed, ⚠️ is flagged but not backed, judged separately exactly as in the blocks above.
By league
| League | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | ✅ EV | ⚠️ EV | ✅ Prob | ⚠️ Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Pro League | 37 | +£70 | +19.0% | +0.9% | — | +£62 (19) | +£6 (3) | +£2 (15) |
| Swiss Super League | 12 | +£13 | +10.5% | +0.2% | — | +£59 (6) | — | £-46 (6) |
| Ligue 2 | 150 | +£122 | +8.1% | +0.5% | — | +£105 (67) | +£7 (1) | +£10 (82) |
| Argentina Primera | 69 | +£24 | +3.5% | +0.7% | — | +£47 (30) | — | £-23 (39) |
| Úrvalsdeild | 97 | +£33 | +3.4% | +0.4% | — | +£95 (50) | +£7 (1) | £-70 (46) |
| Serie B | 120 | +£29 | +2.4% | +0.2% | — | £-22 (49) | +£32 (9) | +£19 (62) |
| La Liga | 161 | +£25 | +1.5% | +0.6% | — | +£15 (72) | +£35 (7) | £-25 (82) |
| Ligue 1 | 135 | +£15 | +1.1% | +0.6% | +£0 (2) | £-26 (69) | +£2 (7) | +£38 (57) |
| Brasileirão Série A | 53 | +£5 | +0.9% | -0.0% | +£10 (1) | £-27 (26) | +£10 (8) | +£11 (18) |
| Eredivisie | 168 | +£8 | +0.5% | +0.1% | — | £-62 (87) | +£8 (1) | +£62 (80) |
| Scottish Premiership | 98 | +£4 | +0.4% | +0.0% | — | +£48 (50) | +£2 (5) | £-46 (43) |
| National League | 319 | £-8 | -0.2% | +0.1% | +£9 (1) | £-30 (162) | +£4 (17) | +£10 (139) |
| Liga MX | 18 | £-1 | -0.6% | +1.2% | — | £-9 (9) | £-3 (2) | +£11 (7) |
| MLS | 58 | £-8 | -1.5% | +0.1% | — | £-21 (29) | — | +£12 (29) |
| League One | 234 | £-47 | -2.0% | +0.5% | — | £-41 (117) | +£29 (4) | £-34 (113) |
| Scottish League Two | 106 | £-27 | -2.6% | +0.4% | — | £-28 (55) | +£34 (7) | £-33 (44) |
| National League - South | 280 | £-112 | -4.0% | +0.4% | +£8 (1) | +£39 (143) | +£10 (13) | £-169 (123) |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 103 | £-43 | -4.1% | +0.2% | — | +£23 (53) | £-8 (6) | £-58 (44) |
| 2. Bundesliga | 150 | £-62 | -4.1% | +0.2% | — | +£28 (78) | — | £-90 (72) |
| UEFA Europa League | 46 | £-21 | -4.5% | -0.7% | — | £-20 (21) | +£5 (3) | £-5 (22) |
| Ykkönen | 134 | £-67 | -5.0% | -0.0% | — | £-25 (68) | £-10 (1) | £-33 (65) |
| Primeira Liga | 107 | £-58 | -5.4% | +0.6% | — | +£77 (32) | +£4 (3) | £-138 (72) |
| Bundesliga | 113 | £-74 | -6.5% | -0.0% | — | £-6 (59) | £-20 (2) | £-48 (52) |
| Eerste Divisie | 228 | £-168 | -7.4% | +0.4% | — | £-142 (118) | — | £-26 (110) |
| UEFA Champions League | 82 | £-61 | -7.5% | +0.8% | +£8 (1) | £-71 (42) | +£13 (4) | £-11 (35) |
| League Two | 242 | £-187 | -7.7% | +0.4% | — | £-79 (113) | £-1 (7) | £-107 (122) |
| Veikkausliiga | 122 | £-103 | -8.5% | +0.2% | — | +£56 (61) | £-2 (7) | £-158 (54) |
| Scottish League One | 105 | £-89 | -8.5% | +0.1% | +£11 (1) | +£6 (51) | £-37 (13) | £-69 (40) |
| Eliteserien | 140 | £-123 | -8.8% | +0.2% | — | £-151 (72) | +£14 (9) | +£14 (59) |
| Segunda División | 179 | £-161 | -9.0% | +0.1% | — | £-73 (70) | +£6 (3) | £-94 (106) |
| Superliga | 124 | £-120 | -9.7% | +0.1% | — | £-50 (66) | £-10 (1) | £-60 (57) |
| Championship | 270 | £-263 | -9.7% | +0.1% | — | £-263 (138) | £-33 (5) | +£33 (127) |
| National League - North | 250 | £-253 | -10.1% | -0.0% | — | £-282 (124) | £-43 (13) | +£72 (113) |
| Allsvenskan | 164 | £-201 | -12.3% | -0.1% | £-10 (1) | +£82 (81) | £-42 (6) | £-231 (76) |
| Serie A | 127 | £-157 | -12.3% | +0.7% | +£10 (1) | £-148 (54) | +£6 (3) | £-25 (69) |
| Premier League | 146 | £-192 | -13.1% | +0.3% | £-1 (2) | £-122 (74) | +£14 (11) | £-83 (59) |
| Süper Lig | 147 | £-287 | -19.5% | +0.2% | £-10 (1) | £-58 (72) | £-16 (7) | £-203 (67) |
| Jupiler Pro League | 144 | £-314 | -21.8% | +0.9% | — | £-119 (72) | £-48 (10) | £-147 (62) |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 42 | £-122 | -29.1% | +1.1% | — | £-72 (18) | £-42 (6) | £-9 (18) |
| Scottish Championship | 88 | £-263 | -29.9% | +0.1% | +£2 (2) | £-102 (33) | £-8 (3) | £-156 (50) |
Leagues with at least 5 settled bets in this market. These samples are small: treat the ordering as weather, not climate, until the counts grow. A league where we consistently beat the close will usually earn its ROI in time. Avenue columns show £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets: ✅ is what that threshold backed, ⚠️ is flagged but not backed, judged separately exactly as in the blocks above.
Today's board
The CS record · level stakes · opener odds
closing-line value: -0.3% avg on 240 of 244 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: -0.6% avg on 273 of 278 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.3% avg on 298 of 303 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
All-games tracking began 5 August 2026: the record settles every game on the board, while the Telegram channels receive only the threshold-passing selections (pass-only from 9 August 2026; before that, the top five per approach with pass/fail labels — and before 5 August, rows are the published top fives only). The Published band is what went to Telegram; the blocks above it are the whole board.
This market has no EV / probability threshold — selections are ranked, so the record is broken out by selection type, exactly as published to Telegram. A further 8318 tracked-but-not-sent scoreline entries (midday re-ranks and, from 5 August 2026, every fixture on the board) settle in the CSV and the tables below.
Level stakes at the odds we flagged when the bet was posted (£10 singles; accumulators £3–£10 by type). Every bet kept — wins and losses. Download the full record (CSV).
Month by month
| Month | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 (early sample) | 83 | £-155 | -18.7% | -0.9% |
| August 2026 | 3313 | £-6,290 | -19.0% | -0.1% |
| September 2026 | 3448 | £-4,660 | -13.5% | -0.4% |
| October 2026 | 2299 | £-3,163 | -13.8% | -0.0% |
Calendar months for this market, level stakes. The record began in July 2026 with summer leagues only; the big European leagues joined from August 2026, so early months are small samples and the month-to-month shape says more than any single figure.
By league
| League | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Super League | 18 | +£90 | +50.0% | +0.6% |
| Brasileirão Série A | 86 | +£205 | +23.8% | -0.0% |
| Veikkausliiga | 222 | +£170 | +7.7% | -0.5% |
| National League - North | 405 | +£290 | +7.2% | -0.2% |
| Argentina Primera | 119 | +£60 | +5.0% | -0.2% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 249 | +£75 | +3.0% | -0.7% |
| Allsvenskan | 269 | +£55 | +2.0% | +0.1% |
| National League | 498 | £-5 | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Scottish Premiership | 185 | £-35 | -1.9% | -0.1% |
| Scottish Championship | 177 | £-35 | -2.0% | -0.4% |
| Ligue 2 | 266 | £-60 | -2.3% | -0.3% |
| Liga MX | 29 | £-25 | -8.6% | +0.9% |
| Superliga | 193 | £-190 | -9.8% | -0.7% |
| League Two | 430 | £-460 | -10.7% | -0.3% |
| Scottish League One | 178 | £-225 | -12.6% | -0.4% |
| Eerste Divisie | 375 | £-485 | -12.9% | +0.2% |
| Eliteserien | 227 | £-305 | -13.4% | -0.5% |
| Saudi Pro League | 58 | £-80 | -13.8% | -1.1% |
| Premier League | 226 | £-355 | -15.7% | -0.2% |
| La Liga | 285 | £-470 | -16.5% | -0.7% |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 189 | £-330 | -17.5% | -0.0% |
| UEFA Europa League | 85 | £-155 | -18.2% | -1.1% |
| Primeira Liga | 236 | £-470 | -19.9% | +1.4% |
| Scottish League Two | 199 | £-405 | -20.4% | -0.5% |
| League One | 379 | £-800 | -21.1% | -0.3% |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 81 | £-175 | -21.6% | -0.6% |
| Championship | 432 | £-950 | -22.0% | +0.3% |
| Serie A | 245 | £-550 | -22.4% | -1.1% |
| National League - South | 450 | £-1,058 | -23.5% | -0.6% |
| Ligue 1 | 211 | £-525 | -24.9% | -0.0% |
| Segunda División | 358 | £-920 | -25.7% | +0.5% |
| Ykkönen | 217 | £-570 | -26.3% | -0.2% |
| Süper Lig | 245 | £-700 | -28.6% | +0.5% |
| UEFA Champions League | 134 | £-385 | -28.7% | +0.7% |
| Serie B | 220 | £-705 | -32.0% | -1.2% |
| MLS | 96 | £-310 | -32.3% | -0.3% |
| Jupiler Pro League | 244 | £-835 | -34.2% | -0.4% |
| Úrvalsdeild | 153 | £-580 | -37.9% | -0.2% |
| Eredivisie | 281 | £-1,130 | -40.2% | +0.1% |
| Bundesliga | 193 | £-930 | -48.2% | -0.6% |
Leagues with at least 5 settled bets in this market. These samples are small: treat the ordering as weather, not climate, until the counts grow. A league where we consistently beat the close will usually earn its ROI in time.
Today's board
The ACCA record · level stakes · opener odds
All-games tracking began 5 August 2026: the record settles every game on the board, while the Telegram channels receive only the threshold-passing selections (pass-only from 9 August 2026; before that, the top five per approach with pass/fail labels — and before 5 August, rows are the published top fives only). The Published band is what went to Telegram; the blocks above it are the whole board.
Every accumulator is posted before kick-off and settled here by type, so which shapes earn their keep is visible above. Stakes differ by type (£5 doubles, £3 big odds, £10 otherwise), so pounds are the honest comparator. Accumulator rules updated 22 July 2026: shapes are chosen by backtest over 21,000 out-of-sample matches (previously hand-picked); the record spans both rule sets and nothing was restarted. Structure changed again on 31 August 2026: the banker dropped from three legs to two and a 6-fold was added, so the blocks above show the CURRENT structure and the previous one is kept separately at the bottom rather than mixed in or removed. Read the improvement with care: the current structure is a handful of weeks and a few dozen settled accas — far too few to conclude the new shapes are better than the old ones. The gap between the two blocks is what has happened so far, not a finding.
Level stakes at the odds we flagged when the bet was posted (£10 singles; accumulators £3–£10 by type). Every bet kept — wins and losses. Download the full record (CSV).
Month by month
| Month | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | Match Result double | 2-fold | 3-fold | 4-fold | 6-fold | Dbl BTTS | Dbl O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 (early sample) | 24 | £-37 | -24.0% | — | — | £-12 (7) | £-10 (2) | — | — | £-13 (10) | £-2 (5) |
| August 2026 | 135 | £-217 | -28.1% | — | — | £-84 (29) | +£45 (26) | £-66 (22) | £-3 (1) | £-60 (29) | £-49 (28) |
| September 2026 | 128 | +£35 | +5.1% | — | — | £-60 (23) | £-49 (26) | +£53 (21) | +£113 (17) | £-7 (22) | £-15 (19) |
| October 2026 (early sample) | 73 | £-1 | -0.2% | — | +£25 (4) | £-57 (14) | +£21 (13) | £-15 (12) | £-11 (11) | +£15 (11) | +£22 (8) |
Calendar months for this market, level stakes. The record began in July 2026 with summer leagues only; the big European leagues joined from August 2026, so early months are small samples and the month-to-month shape says more than any single figure. Columns to the right split the record by accumulator type, in £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets.
By league
| League | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | Match Result double | 2-fold | 3-fold | 4-fold | 6-fold | Dbl BTTS | Dbl O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nan | 360 | £-221 | -10.9% | — | +£25 (4) | £-213 (73) | +£6 (67) | £-28 (55) | +£98 (29) | £-65 (72) | £-43 (60) |
Leagues with at least 5 settled bets in this market. These samples are small: treat the ordering as weather, not climate, until the counts grow. A league where we consistently beat the close will usually earn its ROI in time. Columns to the right split the record by accumulator type, in £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets.
Today's Free Football Predictions bets · 2026-10-20
PASS = meets our threshold — the bets we back. FAIL = flagged but below threshold — tracked, not backed.
The daily card · top five by model probability
The free daily card ranks the model's five most confident calls across double chance, over/under 1.5 and over/under 3.5 by probability alone. No edge is claimed and no money is staked on them, so they are judged on the two questions that actually apply: were the percentages honest, and what would backing them blindly have cost?
174 reads published since 2026-08-31 · 173 settled · 1 still awaiting a result or not yet on the settled board · Brier score 0.1865 (lower is better; 0.25 is what predicting 50% on everything scores)
| Model said | Reads | Average stated | Actually happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 50 to 60% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 60 to 70% | 25 | 66.7% | 68.0% | +1.3 pts |
| 70 to 80% | 40 | 74.4% | 55.0% | -19.4 pts |
| 80 to 90% | 106 | 84.4% | 83.0% | -1.4 pts |
| 90 to 100% | 2 | 90.5% | 50.0% | -40.5 pts |
The P&L above is hypothetical: flat £10 on every read at the odds printed on the card. These are analysis, not backed selections — no stake was placed on any of them and none of them appears in the bet record below.
Forecasting accurately and betting profitably are different problems. A model can be well calibrated — the percentages honest, band by band — and still lose money at book prices, because the bookmaker's margin is priced into every quote. Closing that gap is what the EV and probability thresholds below exist to do, and in this market they currently cannot, which is why these reads are published as analysis and nothing is staked on them.
The Free Football Predictions record · level stakes · opener odds
closing-line value: +0.2% avg on 7997 of 8059 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.0% avg on 2636 of 2663 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.2% avg on 2679 of 2696 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.4% avg on 2682 of 2700 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
| Market | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | 2738 | 78% | £-1,308 | -4.8% | +0.0% |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals | 2779 | 49% | £-2,600 | -9.4% | +0.2% |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals | 2771 | 53% | £-2,072 | -7.5% | +0.4% |
Every candidate the model priced, gate passes and rejects together — settled so the gates themselves are auditable, and retunable only at the pre-committed revision dates. The blocks above are the bankers we actually sent.
All-games tracking began 5 August 2026: the record settles every game on the board, while the Telegram channels receive only the threshold-passing selections (pass-only from 9 August 2026; before that, the top five per approach with pass/fail labels — and before 5 August, rows are the published top fives only). The Published band is what went to Telegram; the blocks above it are the whole board.
The blocks above are the gate record — every pick that cleared its published gate at its frozen quote, judged per sub-market (the channel receives the top five each morning). From 8 August 2026 the site also settles every candidate the model priced but the gate rejected: that full record is in the fold above and in the CSV, so the gates are audited in public, not just the picks.
Level stakes at the odds we flagged when the bet was posted (£10 singles; accumulators £3–£10 by type). Every bet kept — wins and losses. Download the full record (CSV).
Month by month
| Month | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | Double Chance | OU 1.5 | OU 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 (early sample) | 6 | +£11 | +18.3% | -0.3% | £-7 (3) | — | +£18 (3) |
| August 2026 | 2678 | £-1,913 | -7.1% | +0.1% | £-518 (893) | £-833 (881) | £-562 (904) |
| September 2026 | 3172 | £-2,987 | -9.4% | +0.3% | £-698 (1036) | £-1,256 (1073) | £-1,033 (1063) |
| October 2026 | 2203 | £-772 | -3.5% | +0.2% | £-34 (731) | £-325 (742) | £-413 (730) |
Calendar months for this market, level stakes. The record began in July 2026 with summer leagues only; the big European leagues joined from August 2026, so early months are small samples and the month-to-month shape says more than any single figure. Columns to the right split the record by sub-market, in £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets.
By league
| League | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | Double Chance | OU 1.5 | OU 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Super League | 18 | +£56 | +31.2% | +0.3% | +£12 (6) | +£27 (6) | +£16 (6) |
| Argentina Primera | 120 | +£263 | +21.9% | +1.4% | +£17 (39) | +£100 (39) | +£145 (42) |
| Brasileirão Série A | 85 | +£131 | +15.4% | +0.7% | £-13 (27) | +£58 (30) | +£87 (28) |
| Allsvenskan | 229 | +£138 | +6.0% | +0.3% | £-79 (75) | +£242 (76) | £-25 (78) |
| Jupiler Pro League | 218 | +£59 | +2.7% | +0.2% | +£27 (71) | +£56 (74) | £-25 (73) |
| Scottish Premiership | 145 | +£21 | +1.4% | +0.6% | £-3 (46) | £-32 (47) | +£55 (52) |
| League Two | 392 | +£39 | +1.0% | +0.1% | £-149 (131) | +£172 (128) | +£15 (133) |
| Scottish Championship | 134 | +£2 | +0.1% | -0.1% | £-36 (43) | +£87 (46) | £-49 (45) |
| Segunda División | 346 | £-5 | -0.1% | +0.9% | £-10 (113) | £-28 (114) | +£33 (119) |
| Eerste Divisie | 337 | £-16 | -0.5% | +0.6% | +£14 (110) | +£26 (114) | £-56 (113) |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 58 | £-12 | -2.0% | +0.0% | £-30 (20) | +£21 (19) | £-3 (19) |
| League One | 365 | £-110 | -3.0% | -0.1% | £-146 (121) | £-5 (125) | +£40 (119) |
| UEFA Champions League | 113 | £-41 | -3.7% | +0.6% | +£4 (40) | £-67 (36) | +£22 (37) |
| National League - North | 351 | £-139 | -4.0% | -0.1% | £-81 (115) | £-104 (117) | +£46 (119) |
| Liga MX | 28 | £-13 | -4.6% | +1.3% | £-15 (9) | +£6 (9) | £-4 (10) |
| Premier League | 217 | £-102 | -4.7% | +0.4% | £-55 (71) | £-12 (73) | £-35 (73) |
| 2. Bundesliga | 216 | £-136 | -6.3% | +0.4% | £-46 (70) | £-81 (71) | £-10 (75) |
| Championship | 416 | £-282 | -6.8% | +0.3% | +£1 (138) | £-94 (139) | £-189 (139) |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 157 | £-109 | -7.0% | +0.3% | £-0 (51) | £-87 (56) | £-22 (50) |
| Scottish League One | 140 | £-113 | -8.1% | +0.5% | +£8 (47) | £-71 (47) | £-49 (46) |
| Ligue 1 | 204 | £-166 | -8.2% | +0.6% | £-61 (67) | +£16 (67) | £-121 (70) |
| National League - South | 391 | £-327 | -8.4% | -0.1% | £-94 (130) | £-183 (132) | £-50 (129) |
| Süper Lig | 232 | £-196 | -8.4% | -0.2% | £-42 (75) | £-53 (78) | £-100 (79) |
| Serie A | 226 | £-194 | -8.6% | +0.7% | £-62 (75) | £-103 (72) | £-29 (79) |
| Serie B | 226 | £-197 | -8.7% | +1.4% | £-80 (72) | £-49 (78) | £-68 (76) |
| Superliga | 166 | £-160 | -9.6% | -0.3% | +£10 (55) | £-124 (56) | £-45 (55) |
| Scottish League Two | 144 | £-160 | -11.1% | +0.3% | £-8 (47) | £-97 (50) | £-56 (47) |
| Bundesliga | 165 | £-185 | -11.2% | -1.5% | +£8 (55) | £-154 (55) | £-39 (55) |
| National League | 441 | £-502 | -11.4% | -0.1% | £-7 (145) | £-331 (149) | £-164 (147) |
| Ykkönen | 147 | £-168 | -11.4% | -0.9% | £-34 (58) | £-125 (43) | £-9 (46) |
| Ligue 2 | 223 | £-283 | -12.7% | +0.7% | £-20 (72) | £-38 (77) | £-226 (74) |
| Veikkausliiga | 176 | £-236 | -13.4% | -0.1% | £-67 (59) | £-139 (58) | £-30 (59) |
| Úrvalsdeild | 115 | £-161 | -14.0% | +0.6% | +£20 (40) | £-156 (38) | £-25 (37) |
| Primeira Liga | 208 | £-367 | -17.6% | -0.9% | £-39 (69) | £-220 (70) | £-108 (69) |
| MLS | 91 | £-173 | -19.1% | -0.7% | +£27 (29) | £-85 (32) | £-116 (30) |
| Eredivisie | 238 | £-502 | -21.1% | +0.9% | £-82 (78) | £-186 (82) | £-234 (78) |
| La Liga | 275 | £-586 | -21.3% | +0.1% | £-77 (91) | £-216 (91) | £-292 (93) |
| Eliteserien | 181 | £-410 | -22.6% | -0.3% | £-65 (60) | £-225 (61) | £-120 (60) |
| UEFA Europa League | 69 | £-170 | -24.6% | +0.7% | +£9 (24) | £-88 (23) | £-92 (22) |
| Saudi Pro League | 56 | £-147 | -26.2% | +0.7% | £-14 (19) | £-74 (18) | £-60 (19) |
Leagues with at least 5 settled bets in this market. These samples are small: treat the ordering as weather, not climate, until the counts grow. A league where we consistently beat the close will usually earn its ROI in time. Columns to the right split the record by sub-market, in £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets.