Altora Analysis
Value & probability bets · PASS/FAIL · £10 level stakes. Analysis, not tips. Tracked in the open.
Every prediction remains online. Every result is tracked. Nothing deleted.
Today's board
The 1X2 record · level stakes · opener odds
closing-line value: +0.9% avg on 6 of 6 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.9% avg on 6 of 6 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
Backed-vs-rejected separation (the number that judges the thresholds): EV: gap building — backed side has settled 0 of the 30 bets needed · Probability: gap building — backed side has settled 6 of the 30 bets needed
| Selection group | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ EV — flagged, not backed | 980 | 34% | £-87 | -0.9% | +0.8% |
| ⚠️ Probability — flagged, not backed | 1067 | 51% | £-536 | -5.0% | +0.2% |
Every game the model priced but the frozen thresholds rejected — tracked and settled so the thresholds are judged, not just the picks. No money on these.
| Selection group | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ EV — flagged, not backed | 60 | 22% | £-152.20 | -25.4% | +2.0% |
| ✅ Probability — backed | 6 | 83% | +£21.60 | +36.0% | +0.9% |
| ⚠️ Probability — flagged, not backed | 58 | 55% | £-59.30 | -10.2% | +0.0% |
| All published | 124 | 40% | £-189.90 | -15.3% | +1.0% |
The subscriber view, judged exactly like the whole board above: ✅ backed selections are the product, ⚠️ flagged selections were sent with their FAIL label and not backed.
All-games tracking began 5 August 2026: the record settles every game on the board, while the Telegram channels receive only the threshold-passing selections (pass-only from 9 August 2026; before that, the top five per approach with pass/fail labels — and before 5 August, rows are the published top fives only). The Published band is the subscriber view; the blocks above it are the whole board.
The filter is the product, and each avenue is judged separately: PASS is what we actually back, FAIL is what we skipped. If a FAIL block out-earns its PASS block, that threshold is wrong — and you will see it here before we do anything about it.
The free daily card ranks the model's five most confident calls in this market by probability alone. No edge is claimed and no money is staked on them, so they are judged on the two questions that actually apply: were the percentages honest, and what would backing them blindly have cost?
50 reads published since 2026-08-25 · 45 settled · 5 still awaiting a result or not yet on the settled board · Brier score 0.1940 (lower is better; 0.25 is what predicting 50% on everything scores)
| Model said | Reads | Average stated | Actually happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 8 | 44.5% | 50.0% | +5.5 pts |
| 50 to 60% | 11 | 55.4% | 72.7% | +17.3 pts |
| 60 to 70% | 20 | 64.4% | 80.0% | +15.6 pts |
| 70 to 80% | 6 | 71.1% | 83.3% | +12.3 pts |
| 80 to 90% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 90 to 100% | 0 | – | – | – |
The P&L above is hypothetical: flat £10 on every read at the odds printed on the card. These are analysis, not backed selections — no stake was placed on any of them and none of them appears in the bet record above.
Forecasting accurately and betting profitably are different problems. A model can be well calibrated — the percentages honest, band by band — and still lose money at book prices, because the bookmaker's margin is priced into every quote. Closing that gap is what the EV and probability thresholds above exist to do, and in this market they currently cannot, which is why these reads are published as analysis and nothing is staked on them.
Level stakes at the odds we flagged when the bet was posted (£10 singles; accumulators £3–£10 by type). Every bet kept — wins and losses. Download the full record (CSV).
Month by month
| Month | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | ✅ EV | ⚠️ EV | ✅ Prob | ⚠️ Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 (early sample) | 56 | £-94 | -16.9% | +1.3% | — | £-68 (28) | — | £-27 (28) |
| August 2026 | 1896 | £-579 | -3.1% | +0.4% | — | £-17 (905) | +£14 (5) | £-576 (986) |
| September 2026 | 101 | +£72 | +7.2% | +1.2% | — | £-2 (47) | +£8 (1) | +£67 (53) |
Calendar months for this market, level stakes. The record began in July 2026 with summer leagues only; the big European leagues joined from August 2026, so early months are small samples and the month-to-month shape says more than any single figure. Avenue columns show £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets: ✅ is what that threshold backed, ⚠️ is flagged but not backed, judged separately exactly as in the blocks above.
By league
| League | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | ✅ EV | ⚠️ EV | ✅ Prob | ⚠️ Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Champions League | 22 | +£83 | +37.6% | +0.0% | — | +£71 (11) | — | +£12 (11) |
| 2. Bundesliga | 53 | +£161 | +30.4% | +0.2% | — | +£134 (25) | — | +£27 (28) |
| Scottish Premiership | 42 | +£112 | +26.7% | -0.1% | — | +£61 (21) | — | +£51 (21) |
| Úrvalsdeild | 70 | +£164 | +23.5% | +0.3% | — | +£97 (32) | — | +£68 (38) |
| Premier League | 38 | +£82 | +21.6% | +0.9% | — | +£57 (18) | — | +£25 (20) |
| Veikkausliiga | 55 | +£117 | +21.2% | +0.1% | — | +£138 (26) | — | £-21 (29) |
| National League | 116 | +£179 | +15.4% | +0.3% | — | +£121 (56) | — | +£58 (60) |
| Serie B | 37 | +£46 | +12.5% | +0.9% | — | +£112 (16) | — | £-66 (21) |
| Eerste Divisie | 79 | +£61 | +7.7% | +0.9% | — | +£115 (37) | +£6 (1) | £-60 (41) |
| Süper Lig | 51 | +£35 | +6.8% | +3.3% | — | +£89 (24) | — | £-54 (27) |
| Ligue 1 | 38 | +£17 | +4.6% | +2.1% | — | +£43 (18) | — | £-25 (20) |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 51 | +£17 | +3.3% | +2.4% | — | £-34 (25) | +£8 (1) | +£43 (25) |
| Jupiler Pro League | 74 | +£18 | +2.4% | -0.1% | — | £-44 (38) | — | +£62 (36) |
| League Two | 95 | +£11 | +1.2% | +0.1% | — | +£65 (46) | £-10 (1) | £-44 (48) |
| La Liga | 60 | +£3 | +0.6% | -0.3% | — | £-36 (28) | — | +£39 (32) |
| Scottish League One | 36 | £-4 | -1.2% | +1.0% | — | £-33 (17) | — | +£29 (19) |
| National League - South | 125 | £-50 | -4.0% | +0.0% | — | £-40 (61) | — | £-11 (64) |
| Championship | 91 | £-40 | -4.5% | +0.9% | — | +£48 (43) | — | £-88 (48) |
| Segunda División | 64 | £-35 | -5.5% | +0.7% | — | +£13 (32) | — | £-48 (32) |
| Scottish League Two | 42 | £-24 | -5.7% | +1.6% | — | £-12 (21) | — | £-12 (21) |
| National League - North | 133 | £-83 | -6.3% | +0.2% | — | £-98 (62) | — | +£14 (71) |
| Scottish Championship | 30 | £-27 | -9.1% | -0.0% | — | £-52 (15) | — | +£24 (15) |
| Eliteserien | 53 | £-73 | -13.7% | +0.7% | — | £-10 (25) | — | £-63 (28) |
| Allsvenskan | 79 | £-111 | -14.0% | +1.0% | — | £-28 (38) | +£6 (1) | £-88 (40) |
| Serie A | 39 | £-55 | -14.2% | +0.4% | — | £-93 (19) | — | +£38 (20) |
| League One | 86 | £-148 | -17.2% | -0.3% | — | £-40 (36) | — | £-108 (50) |
| Superliga | 59 | £-110 | -18.6% | +0.5% | — | £-128 (30) | — | +£18 (29) |
| Eredivisie | 67 | £-125 | -18.7% | +0.3% | — | £-112 (33) | +£12 (2) | £-25 (32) |
| Bundesliga | 17 | £-32 | -19.1% | +0.6% | — | £-25 (8) | — | £-8 (9) |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 31 | £-60 | -19.5% | +0.7% | — | £-46 (13) | — | £-14 (18) |
| Primeira Liga | 67 | £-189 | -28.2% | +0.8% | — | £-135 (34) | — | £-54 (33) |
| Ligue 2 | 70 | £-203 | -29.0% | +0.2% | — | £-79 (32) | — | £-124 (38) |
| UEFA Europa League | 15 | £-46 | -30.5% | -4.1% | — | £-32 (7) | — | £-13 (8) |
| Ykkönen | 68 | £-290 | -42.6% | +0.3% | — | £-172 (33) | — | £-117 (35) |
Leagues with at least 5 settled bets in this market. These samples are small: treat the ordering as weather, not climate, until the counts grow. A league where we consistently beat the close will usually earn its ROI in time. Avenue columns show £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets: ✅ is what that threshold backed, ⚠️ is flagged but not backed, judged separately exactly as in the blocks above.
Today's board
The OU2.5 record · level stakes · opener odds
closing-line value: +1.3% avg on 5 of 5 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.0% avg on 1 of 1 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +1.6% avg on 4 of 4 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
Backed-vs-rejected separation (the number that judges the thresholds): EV: gap building — backed side has settled 1 of the 30 bets needed · Probability: gap building — backed side has settled 4 of the 30 bets needed
| Selection group | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ EV — flagged, not backed | 439 | 47% | £-322 | -7.3% | -0.1% |
| ⚠️ Probability — flagged, not backed | 1074 | 59% | £-238 | -2.2% | +0.3% |
Every game the model priced but the frozen thresholds rejected — tracked and settled so the thresholds are judged, not just the picks. No money on these.
| Selection group | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ EV — backed | 1 | 100% | +£8.00 | +80.0% | +0.0% |
| ⚠️ EV — flagged, not backed | 56 | 41% | £-49.00 | -8.8% | -0.3% |
| ✅ Probability — backed | 2 | 50% | £-4.00 | -20.0% | +1.0% |
| ⚠️ Probability — flagged, not backed | 58 | 66% | £-23.50 | -4.1% | +0.0% |
| All published | 117 | 54% | £-68.50 | -5.9% | -0.1% |
The subscriber view, judged exactly like the whole board above: ✅ backed selections are the product, ⚠️ flagged selections were sent with their FAIL label and not backed.
All-games tracking began 5 August 2026: the record settles every game on the board, while the Telegram channels receive only the threshold-passing selections (pass-only from 9 August 2026; before that, the top five per approach with pass/fail labels — and before 5 August, rows are the published top fives only). The Published band is the subscriber view; the blocks above it are the whole board.
The filter is the product, and each avenue is judged separately: PASS is what we actually back, FAIL is what we skipped. If a FAIL block out-earns its PASS block, that threshold is wrong — and you will see it here before we do anything about it. 2 threshold-passing selection(s) emerged in the midday data refresh after posting time: they count in the blocks above but were never sent to Telegram, which is why the published table below can show fewer backed bets.
The free daily card ranks the model's five most confident calls in this market by probability alone. No edge is claimed and no money is staked on them, so they are judged on the two questions that actually apply: were the percentages honest, and what would backing them blindly have cost?
50 reads published since 2026-08-25 · 45 settled · 5 still awaiting a result or not yet on the settled board · Brier score 0.2183 (lower is better; 0.25 is what predicting 50% on everything scores)
| Model said | Reads | Average stated | Actually happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 50 to 60% | 12 | 57.2% | 58.3% | +1.1 pts |
| 60 to 70% | 30 | 64.7% | 70.0% | +5.3 pts |
| 70 to 80% | 3 | 74.1% | 100.0% | +25.9 pts |
| 80 to 90% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 90 to 100% | 0 | – | – | – |
The P&L above is hypothetical: flat £10 on every read at the odds printed on the card. These are analysis, not backed selections — no stake was placed on any of them and none of them appears in the bet record above.
Forecasting accurately and betting profitably are different problems. A model can be well calibrated — the percentages honest, band by band — and still lose money at book prices, because the bookmaker's margin is priced into every quote. Closing that gap is what the EV and probability thresholds above exist to do, and in this market they currently cannot, which is why these reads are published as analysis and nothing is staked on them.
Level stakes at the odds we flagged when the bet was posted (£10 singles; accumulators £3–£10 by type). Every bet kept — wins and losses. Download the full record (CSV).
Month by month
| Month | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | ✅ EV | ⚠️ EV | ✅ Prob | ⚠️ Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 (early sample) | 57 | £-78 | -13.6% | -0.2% | +£8 (1) | £-25 (28) | — | £-61 (28) |
| August 2026 | 1382 | £-408 | -3.0% | +0.2% | — | £-287 (390) | £-8 (4) | £-113 (988) |
| September 2026 (early sample) | 79 | £-75 | -9.5% | +1.2% | — | £-10 (21) | — | £-64 (58) |
Calendar months for this market, level stakes. The record began in July 2026 with summer leagues only; the big European leagues joined from August 2026, so early months are small samples and the month-to-month shape says more than any single figure. Avenue columns show £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets: ✅ is what that threshold backed, ⚠️ is flagged but not backed, judged separately exactly as in the blocks above.
By league
| League | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | ✅ EV | ⚠️ EV | ✅ Prob | ⚠️ Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish League Two | 25 | +£53 | +21.2% | +0.6% | — | £-5 (4) | — | +£58 (21) |
| Ligue 2 | 39 | +£68 | +17.4% | +0.2% | — | +£4 (3) | — | +£63 (36) |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 34 | +£43 | +12.5% | +0.6% | — | +£25 (8) | — | +£18 (26) |
| League Two | 54 | +£67 | +12.4% | +0.2% | — | £-5 (6) | — | +£72 (48) |
| Segunda División | 43 | +£50 | +11.7% | -0.7% | — | £-18 (9) | — | +£69 (34) |
| Premier League | 28 | +£21 | +7.6% | +0.0% | — | £-15 (8) | — | +£36 (20) |
| 2. Bundesliga | 40 | +£29 | +7.3% | +0.7% | — | +£23 (13) | — | +£6 (27) |
| Ykkönen | 77 | +£43 | +5.5% | -0.4% | — | +£100 (39) | — | £-57 (38) |
| Jupiler Pro League | 47 | +£13 | +2.8% | +1.8% | — | +£8 (11) | — | +£5 (36) |
| Scottish Premiership | 32 | +£8 | +2.5% | +0.9% | — | +£9 (10) | — | £-1 (22) |
| La Liga | 48 | +£9 | +2.0% | +0.6% | — | £-7 (15) | — | +£16 (33) |
| Scottish League One | 26 | £-3 | -1.0% | -0.2% | — | +£8 (4) | +£6 (1) | £-16 (21) |
| Süper Lig | 34 | £-4 | -1.2% | +1.2% | — | +£22 (7) | — | £-26 (27) |
| National League | 74 | £-13 | -1.8% | +0.5% | — | +£15 (13) | +£6 (1) | £-33 (60) |
| Bundesliga | 18 | £-3 | -1.8% | +0.8% | — | £-21 (9) | — | +£18 (9) |
| Superliga | 49 | £-9 | -1.8% | -0.1% | — | +£43 (21) | — | £-52 (28) |
| Eerste Divisie | 70 | £-26 | -3.7% | -1.0% | — | £-66 (28) | — | +£40 (42) |
| Championship | 57 | £-23 | -4.1% | +0.2% | — | £-1 (4) | — | £-23 (53) |
| League One | 57 | £-25 | -4.5% | +0.4% | — | £-31 (10) | — | +£5 (47) |
| Allsvenskan | 66 | £-32 | -4.8% | -0.1% | — | £-10 (26) | — | £-22 (40) |
| Úrvalsdeild | 74 | £-38 | -5.2% | -0.4% | — | £-22 (38) | — | £-16 (36) |
| Primeira Liga | 47 | £-25 | -5.3% | +1.2% | — | £-23 (14) | — | £-2 (33) |
| Eredivisie | 65 | £-61 | -9.4% | -0.1% | — | £-125 (32) | — | +£64 (33) |
| Scottish Championship | 18 | £-18 | -10.2% | +0.3% | — | £-30 (3) | — | +£12 (15) |
| UEFA Champions League | 21 | £-24 | -11.6% | +1.1% | — | £-22 (10) | £-10 (1) | +£8 (10) |
| Serie A | 29 | £-42 | -14.4% | +0.4% | — | £-27 (9) | — | £-14 (20) |
| Serie B | 26 | £-38 | -14.7% | -1.1% | — | +£11 (6) | — | £-49 (20) |
| National League - South | 77 | £-121 | -15.8% | +0.6% | — | +£9 (13) | £-10 (1) | £-121 (63) |
| National League - North | 83 | £-135 | -16.3% | +0.1% | — | +£16 (12) | — | £-151 (71) |
| Eliteserien | 51 | £-92 | -18.1% | -0.2% | — | £-116 (21) | — | +£23 (30) |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 27 | £-49 | -18.1% | +1.4% | — | £-18 (9) | — | £-31 (18) |
| Veikkausliiga | 40 | £-82 | -20.4% | +0.3% | — | £-20 (11) | — | £-61 (29) |
| Ligue 1 | 26 | £-56 | -21.7% | -0.8% | — | +£12 (6) | — | £-68 (20) |
| UEFA Europa League | 16 | £-42 | -26.5% | +1.8% | +£8 (1) | £-44 (7) | — | £-7 (8) |
Leagues with at least 5 settled bets in this market. These samples are small: treat the ordering as weather, not climate, until the counts grow. A league where we consistently beat the close will usually earn its ROI in time. Avenue columns show £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets: ✅ is what that threshold backed, ⚠️ is flagged but not backed, judged separately exactly as in the blocks above.
Today's board
The BTTS record · level stakes · opener odds
closing-line value: +0.8% avg on 65 of 65 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.0% avg on 4 of 4 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.8% avg on 61 of 61 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
Backed-vs-rejected separation (the number that judges the thresholds): EV: gap building — backed side has settled 4 of the 30 bets needed · Probability: backed -8.0% vs rejected -8.1% · gap +0.1 pts
| Selection group | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ EV — flagged, not backed | 956 | 48% | £-402 | -4.2% | +0.4% |
| ⚠️ Probability — flagged, not backed | 1019 | 56% | £-824 | -8.1% | +0.1% |
Every game the model priced but the frozen thresholds rejected — tracked and settled so the thresholds are judged, not just the picks. No money on these.
| Selection group | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ EV — backed | 4 | 75% | +£19.60 | +49.0% | +0.0% |
| ⚠️ EV — flagged, not backed | 57 | 42% | £-25.60 | -4.5% | +1.0% |
| ✅ Probability — backed | 49 | 53% | £-32.80 | -6.7% | +1.0% |
| ⚠️ Probability — flagged, not backed | 42 | 48% | £-111.20 | -26.5% | -0.6% |
| All published | 152 | 48% | £-150.00 | -9.9% | +0.6% |
The subscriber view, judged exactly like the whole board above: ✅ backed selections are the product, ⚠️ flagged selections were sent with their FAIL label and not backed.
All-games tracking began 5 August 2026: the record settles every game on the board, while the Telegram channels receive only the threshold-passing selections (pass-only from 9 August 2026; before that, the top five per approach with pass/fail labels — and before 5 August, rows are the published top fives only). The Published band is the subscriber view; the blocks above it are the whole board.
The filter is the product, and each avenue is judged separately: PASS is what we actually back, FAIL is what we skipped. If a FAIL block out-earns its PASS block, that threshold is wrong — and you will see it here before we do anything about it. 12 threshold-passing selection(s) emerged in the midday data refresh after posting time: they count in the blocks above but were never sent to Telegram, which is why the published table below can show fewer backed bets.
The free daily card ranks the model's five most confident calls in this market by probability alone. No edge is claimed and no money is staked on them, so they are judged on the two questions that actually apply: were the percentages honest, and what would backing them blindly have cost?
52 reads published since 2026-08-25 · 47 settled · 5 still awaiting a result or not yet on the settled board · Brier score 0.2437 (lower is better; 0.25 is what predicting 50% on everything scores)
| Model said | Reads | Average stated | Actually happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 50 to 60% | 24 | 56.7% | 50.0% | -6.7 pts |
| 60 to 70% | 23 | 63.6% | 65.2% | +1.7 pts |
| 70 to 80% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 80 to 90% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 90 to 100% | 0 | – | – | – |
The P&L above is hypothetical: flat £10 on every read at the odds printed on the card. These are analysis, not backed selections — no stake was placed on any of them and none of them appears in the bet record above.
Forecasting accurately and betting profitably are different problems. A model can be well calibrated — the percentages honest, band by band — and still lose money at book prices, because the bookmaker's margin is priced into every quote. Closing that gap is what the EV and probability thresholds above exist to do, and in this market they currently cannot, which is why these reads are published as analysis and nothing is staked on them.
Level stakes at the odds we flagged when the bet was posted (£10 singles; accumulators £3–£10 by type). Every bet kept — wins and losses. Download the full record (CSV).
Month by month
| Month | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | ✅ EV | ⚠️ EV | ✅ Prob | ⚠️ Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 (early sample) | 57 | £-42 | -7.4% | +0.4% | — | +£18 (29) | £-23 (4) | £-38 (24) |
| August 2026 | 1873 | £-1,026 | -5.5% | +0.2% | +£20 (4) | £-282 (871) | £-3 (53) | £-761 (945) |
| September 2026 | 110 | £-187 | -17.0% | +1.3% | — | £-139 (56) | £-23 (4) | £-25 (50) |
Calendar months for this market, level stakes. The record began in July 2026 with summer leagues only; the big European leagues joined from August 2026, so early months are small samples and the month-to-month shape says more than any single figure. Avenue columns show £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets: ✅ is what that threshold backed, ⚠️ is flagged but not backed, judged separately exactly as in the blocks above.
By league
| League | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | ✅ EV | ⚠️ EV | ✅ Prob | ⚠️ Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Europa League | 15 | +£26 | +17.1% | -2.5% | — | +£30 (6) | — | £-5 (9) |
| Ligue 1 | 38 | +£34 | +9.0% | +0.3% | — | +£43 (18) | +£8 (1) | £-16 (19) |
| Úrvalsdeild | 74 | +£60 | +8.2% | +0.3% | — | +£111 (38) | +£7 (1) | £-58 (35) |
| Ligue 2 | 63 | +£37 | +5.8% | +0.2% | — | +£74 (25) | — | £-38 (38) |
| National League | 124 | +£58 | +4.7% | +0.1% | +£9 (1) | £-4 (62) | +£35 (7) | +£18 (54) |
| Eredivisie | 66 | +£26 | +4.0% | +0.0% | — | £-33 (33) | — | +£59 (33) |
| League Two | 85 | +£33 | +3.8% | +0.6% | — | +£12 (36) | +£5 (3) | +£16 (46) |
| League One | 91 | +£28 | +3.1% | +0.8% | — | £-8 (43) | +£14 (2) | +£22 (46) |
| Ykkönen | 73 | £-1 | -0.1% | +0.1% | — | +£8 (37) | £-10 (1) | +£2 (35) |
| Scottish League Two | 44 | £-8 | -1.9% | +0.2% | — | +£14 (23) | +£12 (4) | £-34 (17) |
| 2. Bundesliga | 56 | £-16 | -2.9% | +0.3% | — | +£21 (29) | — | £-38 (27) |
| Premier League | 41 | £-15 | -3.7% | +0.3% | — | +£3 (21) | +£22 (3) | £-40 (17) |
| Primeira Liga | 46 | £-17 | -3.8% | +1.1% | — | +£49 (11) | +£7 (1) | £-73 (34) |
| Superliga | 60 | £-28 | -4.6% | -0.2% | — | +£24 (32) | — | £-52 (28) |
| National League - South | 131 | £-77 | -5.9% | +0.2% | +£8 (1) | +£29 (65) | +£1 (7) | £-115 (58) |
| Süper Lig | 51 | £-30 | -5.9% | -0.3% | — | +£14 (22) | £-10 (1) | £-34 (28) |
| Scottish Premiership | 40 | £-28 | -7.0% | +0.7% | — | +£10 (21) | +£7 (1) | £-45 (18) |
| Segunda División | 47 | £-35 | -7.5% | +0.5% | — | £-23 (14) | — | £-12 (33) |
| National League - North | 140 | £-123 | -8.8% | -0.2% | — | £-184 (68) | £-12 (3) | +£74 (69) |
| Veikkausliiga | 55 | £-48 | -8.8% | +0.0% | — | +£24 (28) | +£4 (3) | £-76 (24) |
| La Liga | 52 | £-50 | -9.7% | +0.3% | — | £-7 (20) | — | £-43 (32) |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 53 | £-60 | -11.3% | +0.4% | — | £-21 (27) | £-12 (3) | £-27 (23) |
| Allsvenskan | 81 | £-100 | -12.3% | -0.1% | — | +£81 (40) | £-30 (3) | £-151 (38) |
| Championship | 99 | £-127 | -12.8% | +0.6% | — | £-160 (51) | £-10 (1) | +£44 (47) |
| Serie B | 25 | £-35 | -14.2% | -1.8% | — | +£7 (5) | — | £-42 (20) |
| Jupiler Pro League | 70 | £-104 | -14.9% | +0.9% | — | £-53 (34) | £-33 (5) | £-18 (31) |
| Eliteserien | 58 | £-97 | -16.8% | +0.3% | — | £-88 (30) | — | £-9 (28) |
| Bundesliga | 19 | £-33 | -17.4% | +0.5% | — | £-19 (10) | — | £-14 (9) |
| Eerste Divisie | 86 | £-158 | -18.4% | +0.4% | — | £-226 (44) | — | +£67 (42) |
| Serie A | 28 | £-52 | -18.6% | +1.9% | — | £-34 (7) | — | £-18 (21) |
| Scottish Championship | 32 | £-68 | -21.4% | -0.3% | +£2 (2) | £-24 (12) | +£2 (2) | £-50 (16) |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 32 | £-73 | -22.8% | +0.3% | — | £-40 (13) | £-20 (2) | £-13 (17) |
| UEFA Champions League | 23 | £-55 | -24.0% | +2.0% | — | £-38 (12) | £-3 (2) | £-14 (9) |
| Scottish League One | 42 | £-115 | -27.3% | +0.2% | — | +£8 (19) | £-32 (5) | £-91 (18) |
Leagues with at least 5 settled bets in this market. These samples are small: treat the ordering as weather, not climate, until the counts grow. A league where we consistently beat the close will usually earn its ROI in time. Avenue columns show £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets: ✅ is what that threshold backed, ⚠️ is flagged but not backed, judged separately exactly as in the blocks above.
Today's board
The CS record · level stakes · opener odds
closing-line value: -0.4% avg on 205 of 209 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: -1.0% avg on 205 of 209 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.2% avg on 206 of 210 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
All-games tracking began 5 August 2026: the record settles every game on the board, while the Telegram channels receive only the threshold-passing selections (pass-only from 9 August 2026; before that, the top five per approach with pass/fail labels — and before 5 August, rows are the published top fives only). The Published band is the subscriber view; the blocks above it are the whole board.
This market has no EV / probability threshold — selections are ranked, so the record is broken out by selection type, exactly as published to Telegram. A further 2954 tracked-but-not-sent scoreline entries (midday re-ranks and, from 5 August 2026, every fixture on the board) settle in the CSV and the tables below.
Level stakes at the odds we flagged when the bet was posted (£10 singles; accumulators £3–£10 by type). Every bet kept — wins and losses. Download the full record (CSV).
Month by month
| Month | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 (early sample) | 83 | £-155 | -18.7% | -0.9% |
| August 2026 | 3313 | £-6,290 | -19.0% | -0.1% |
| September 2026 | 186 | +£165 | +8.9% | -1.3% |
Calendar months for this market, level stakes. The record began in July 2026 with summer leagues only; the big European leagues joined from August 2026, so early months are small samples and the month-to-month shape says more than any single figure.
By league
| League | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish Championship | 61 | +£290 | +47.5% | -0.7% |
| National League - North | 215 | +£450 | +20.9% | -0.0% |
| La Liga | 100 | +£65 | +6.5% | -0.8% |
| Serie A | 72 | +£25 | +3.5% | -1.0% |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 105 | +£35 | +3.3% | -0.3% |
| National League | 190 | £-25 | -1.3% | +0.1% |
| Superliga | 95 | £-30 | -3.2% | -0.8% |
| Süper Lig | 86 | £-35 | -4.1% | +2.2% |
| Scottish Premiership | 91 | £-40 | -4.4% | -0.7% |
| UEFA Europa League | 28 | £-15 | -5.4% | +0.2% |
| Veikkausliiga | 102 | £-60 | -5.9% | -0.3% |
| Ligue 2 | 121 | £-100 | -8.3% | -0.1% |
| Eerste Divisie | 141 | £-150 | -10.6% | -0.6% |
| Allsvenskan | 138 | £-185 | -13.4% | +0.4% |
| Eliteserien | 95 | £-175 | -18.4% | -0.1% |
| Primeira Liga | 104 | £-195 | -18.8% | +2.4% |
| Scottish League Two | 88 | £-190 | -21.6% | -0.8% |
| Ykkönen | 119 | £-265 | -22.3% | -0.0% |
| League Two | 159 | £-365 | -23.0% | -0.2% |
| League One | 156 | £-365 | -23.4% | -0.3% |
| Segunda División | 107 | £-260 | -24.3% | -0.4% |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 66 | £-170 | -25.8% | +0.1% |
| Scottish League One | 76 | £-205 | -27.0% | -1.2% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 89 | £-255 | -28.7% | -0.7% |
| National League - South | 207 | £-650 | -31.4% | -0.5% |
| Eredivisie | 117 | £-415 | -35.5% | -0.5% |
| UEFA Champions League | 37 | £-140 | -37.8% | +0.4% |
| Jupiler Pro League | 122 | £-480 | -39.3% | -0.9% |
| Premier League | 63 | £-255 | -40.5% | +0.6% |
| Serie B | 64 | £-280 | -43.8% | -2.2% |
| Championship | 155 | £-725 | -46.8% | -0.5% |
| Ligue 1 | 61 | £-290 | -47.5% | +1.5% |
| Úrvalsdeild | 120 | £-580 | -48.3% | -0.3% |
| Bundesliga | 32 | £-245 | -76.6% | -0.3% |
Leagues with at least 5 settled bets in this market. These samples are small: treat the ordering as weather, not climate, until the counts grow. A league where we consistently beat the close will usually earn its ROI in time.
Today's board
The ACCA record · level stakes · opener odds
All-games tracking began 5 August 2026: the record settles every game on the board, while the Telegram channels receive only the threshold-passing selections (pass-only from 9 August 2026; before that, the top five per approach with pass/fail labels — and before 5 August, rows are the published top fives only). The Published band is the subscriber view; the blocks above it are the whole board.
Every accumulator is posted before kick-off and settled here by type, so which shapes earn their keep is visible above. Stakes differ by type (£5 doubles, £3 big odds, £10 otherwise), so pounds are the honest comparator. Accumulator rules updated 22 July 2026: shapes are chosen by backtest over 21,000 out-of-sample matches (previously hand-picked); the record spans both rule sets and nothing was restarted.
Level stakes at the odds we flagged when the bet was posted (£10 singles; accumulators £3–£10 by type). Every bet kept — wins and losses. Download the full record (CSV).
Month by month
| Month | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | Short odds | Mid odds | Big odds | Dbl BTTS | Dbl O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 (early sample) | 24 | £-37 | -24.0% | — | £-12 (7) | £-10 (2) | — | £-13 (10) | £-2 (5) |
| August 2026 | 134 | £-214 | -27.8% | — | £-84 (29) | +£45 (26) | £-66 (22) | £-60 (29) | £-49 (28) |
| September 2026 (early sample) | 13 | £-6 | -8.4% | — | +£5 (3) | £-15 (3) | +£7 (2) | £-10 (2) | +£8 (3) |
Calendar months for this market, level stakes. The record began in July 2026 with summer leagues only; the big European leagues joined from August 2026, so early months are small samples and the month-to-month shape says more than any single figure. Columns to the right split the record by accumulator type, in £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets.
By league
| League | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | Short odds | Mid odds | Big odds | Dbl BTTS | Dbl O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nan | 171 | £-258 | -25.7% | — | £-92 (39) | +£20 (31) | £-59 (24) | £-83 (41) | £-43 (36) |
Leagues with at least 5 settled bets in this market. These samples are small: treat the ordering as weather, not climate, until the counts grow. A league where we consistently beat the close will usually earn its ROI in time. Columns to the right split the record by accumulator type, in £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets.
Today's Free Football Predictions bets · 2026-09-04
PASS = meets our threshold — the bets we back. FAIL = flagged but below threshold — tracked, not backed.
The Free Football Predictions record · level stakes · opener odds
closing-line value: +0.2% avg on 2827 of 2859 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.1% avg on 936 of 952 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.2% avg on 929 of 937 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
closing-line value: +0.3% avg on 962 of 970 bets with a captured close — beating the close is the earliest real evidence of edge
| Market | Bets | Win rate | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | 1027 | 77% | £-596 | -5.8% | +0.1% |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals | 1020 | 53% | £-1,049 | -10.3% | +0.2% |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals | 1041 | 55% | £-631 | -6.1% | +0.2% |
Every candidate the model priced, gate passes and rejects together — settled so the gates themselves are auditable, and retunable only at the pre-committed revision dates. The blocks above are the bankers we actually sent.
All-games tracking began 5 August 2026: the record settles every game on the board, while the Telegram channels receive only the threshold-passing selections (pass-only from 9 August 2026; before that, the top five per approach with pass/fail labels — and before 5 August, rows are the published top fives only). The Published band is the subscriber view; the blocks above it are the whole board.
The blocks above are the gate record — every pick that cleared its published gate at its frozen quote, judged per sub-market (the channel receives the top five each morning). From 8 August 2026 the site also settles every candidate the model priced but the gate rejected: that full record is in the fold above and in the CSV, so the gates are audited in public, not just the picks.
The free daily card ranks the model's five most confident calls across double chance, over/under 1.5 and over/under 3.5 by probability alone. No edge is claimed and no money is staked on them, so they are judged on the two questions that actually apply: were the percentages honest, and what would backing them blindly have cost?
19 reads published since 2026-08-31 · 14 settled · 5 still awaiting a result or not yet on the settled board · Brier score 0.0277 (lower is better; 0.25 is what predicting 50% on everything scores)
| Model said | Reads | Average stated | Actually happened | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 50% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 50 to 60% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 60 to 70% | 0 | – | – | – |
| 70 to 80% | 1 | 78.6% | 100.0% | +21.4 pts |
| 80 to 90% | 13 | 84.0% | 100.0% | +16.0 pts |
| 90 to 100% | 0 | – | – | – |
The P&L above is hypothetical: flat £10 on every read at the odds printed on the card. These are analysis, not backed selections — no stake was placed on any of them and none of them appears in the bet record above.
Forecasting accurately and betting profitably are different problems. A model can be well calibrated — the percentages honest, band by band — and still lose money at book prices, because the bookmaker's margin is priced into every quote. Closing that gap is what the EV and probability thresholds above exist to do, and in this market they currently cannot, which is why these reads are published as analysis and nothing is staked on them.
Level stakes at the odds we flagged when the bet was posted (£10 singles; accumulators £3–£10 by type). Every bet kept — wins and losses. Download the full record (CSV).
Month by month
| Month | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | Double Chance | OU 1.5 | OU 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 (early sample) | 6 | +£11 | +18.3% | -0.3% | £-7 (3) | — | +£18 (3) |
| August 2026 | 2678 | £-1,913 | -7.1% | +0.1% | £-518 (893) | £-833 (881) | £-562 (904) |
| September 2026 | 175 | £-56 | -3.2% | +0.7% | £-20 (56) | £-30 (56) | £-5 (63) |
Calendar months for this market, level stakes. The record began in July 2026 with summer leagues only; the big European leagues joined from August 2026, so early months are small samples and the month-to-month shape says more than any single figure. Columns to the right split the record by sub-market, in £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets.
By league
| League | Bets | P&L | ROI | Avg CLV | Double Chance | OU 1.5 | OU 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 70 | +£100 | +14.3% | +0.1% | +£25 (24) | +£70 (22) | +£5 (24) |
| Scottish Championship | 31 | +£35 | +11.4% | +0.2% | +£10 (10) | +£19 (11) | +£6 (10) |
| Jupiler Pro League | 105 | +£75 | +7.2% | +0.3% | £-7 (35) | +£66 (34) | +£16 (36) |
| Allsvenskan | 103 | +£72 | +7.0% | +0.7% | £-52 (34) | +£133 (32) | £-8 (37) |
| Scottish Premiership | 55 | +£38 | +6.8% | +0.6% | £-1 (17) | £-25 (18) | +£64 (20) |
| League Two | 148 | +£64 | +4.3% | +0.2% | £-72 (49) | +£13 (49) | +£122 (50) |
| Superliga | 71 | +£17 | +2.4% | -0.2% | +£12 (24) | +£4 (23) | +£0 (24) |
| UEFA Champions League | 24 | +£4 | +1.7% | +0.3% | +£5 (8) | +£1 (8) | £-2 (8) |
| Segunda División | 102 | +£13 | +1.3% | +1.0% | £-20 (33) | +£9 (34) | +£23 (35) |
| League One | 149 | £-34 | -2.3% | +0.1% | £-65 (49) | £-38 (48) | +£69 (52) |
| Süper Lig | 82 | £-21 | -2.6% | -0.4% | £-27 (28) | +£15 (27) | £-9 (27) |
| National League - North | 184 | £-61 | -3.3% | -0.0% | £-40 (60) | £-42 (60) | +£22 (64) |
| Scottish League Two | 51 | £-19 | -3.7% | +0.9% | £-14 (16) | +£20 (18) | £-25 (17) |
| Scottish League One | 45 | £-19 | -4.3% | +0.6% | +£8 (16) | £-36 (15) | +£8 (14) |
| Ykkönen | 75 | £-37 | -4.9% | -1.2% | £-56 (27) | £-5 (24) | +£24 (24) |
| Veikkausliiga | 72 | £-37 | -5.2% | -0.5% | £-13 (25) | £-50 (22) | +£26 (25) |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 76 | £-49 | -6.5% | +0.1% | £-4 (26) | £-9 (26) | £-36 (24) |
| Bundesliga | 27 | £-19 | -6.9% | -1.2% | +£5 (9) | £-9 (9) | £-14 (9) |
| Úrvalsdeild | 82 | £-58 | -7.1% | +0.5% | +£11 (29) | £-58 (27) | £-11 (26) |
| Ligue 1 | 59 | £-42 | -7.1% | +0.2% | £-44 (20) | +£18 (19) | £-16 (20) |
| National League - South | 166 | £-119 | -7.2% | -0.3% | £-30 (55) | £-96 (56) | +£7 (55) |
| Eliteserien | 58 | £-49 | -8.4% | -0.3% | £-42 (20) | £-27 (18) | +£20 (20) |
| Serie A | 65 | £-56 | -8.6% | +0.9% | £-7 (22) | £-52 (21) | +£3 (22) |
| Ligue 2 | 82 | £-86 | -10.5% | +1.2% | £-32 (27) | +£49 (28) | £-103 (27) |
| National League | 150 | £-173 | -11.5% | -0.3% | +£27 (50) | £-158 (49) | £-42 (51) |
| Serie B | 62 | £-82 | -13.2% | +2.3% | £-58 (20) | +£16 (21) | £-40 (21) |
| Primeira Liga | 88 | £-140 | -15.9% | -0.7% | +£4 (29) | £-88 (29) | £-56 (30) |
| UEFA Europa Conference League | 43 | £-76 | -17.7% | +1.2% | £-28 (15) | £-34 (14) | £-14 (14) |
| Eerste Divisie | 116 | £-210 | -18.1% | +0.5% | +£10 (37) | £-125 (37) | £-94 (42) |
| La Liga | 100 | £-192 | -19.2% | -0.2% | +£14 (33) | £-109 (33) | £-97 (34) |
| Championship | 150 | £-316 | -21.1% | +0.4% | £-54 (50) | £-102 (49) | £-161 (51) |
| UEFA Europa League | 16 | £-38 | -23.8% | +2.1% | +£5 (5) | £-16 (5) | £-27 (6) |
| Eredivisie | 91 | £-244 | -26.8% | -0.3% | £-9 (30) | £-117 (31) | £-118 (30) |
| Premier League | 61 | £-198 | -32.4% | -0.3% | £-5 (20) | £-101 (20) | £-91 (21) |
Leagues with at least 5 settled bets in this market. These samples are small: treat the ordering as weather, not climate, until the counts grow. A league where we consistently beat the close will usually earn its ROI in time. Columns to the right split the record by sub-market, in £ profit and loss with the bet count in brackets.