Tennis — the record

Model validation · out-of-sample backtest

Validated on 103,520 ATP & WTA matches (2005–2026)

On the final 3,000 matches — data the model never trained on — its probabilities scored a log-loss of 0.577 against the sharpest bookmaker's closing price at 0.576: statistically level with the best market in the world. We publish that comparison because it is the honest ceiling — and the live record below is where we prove it holds in real time, starting 21 July 2026.

We also tested surface-specific ratings and world rankings: neither improved the model reliably, so we don't use them, and we say so rather than pretend otherwise. The model blends a 20-year Elo rating (men's and women's tours rated separately) with the market's opening price.

Live record

Model favourite, its probability, and the result. Every prediction kept — wins and losses.