Altora Analysis
Calibrated model analysis, not tips. Validated out-of-sample, tracked in the open.
Model updated 22 July 2026: published probabilities now blend the Elo rating with the market opening price through a gradient-boosted calibration layer, validated out-of-sample before switching. The record below spans both model versions.
Model validation · 437 out-of-sample matches · to 2026-05-03
These are matches the model never trained on. It picks the winner about six in ten — and, more importantly, its probabilities are calibrated: when it says 71%, it happens about 71% of the time.
Reliability — model probability predicted vs what actually happened
The two bars line up on every band — that's calibration. On raw pick accuracy the model even edges the market. Not sharper on price, but demonstrably accurate, shown in the open.
The live record · every pick since going public
The tour is between seasons — live picks begin when snooker resumes (Aug/Sep). The validation above is the model's accuracy over hundreds of past matches.
| Date | Model pick | Prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Steven Hallworth v Yang Liu | 64% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Chatchapong Nasa v Sahil Nayyar | 51% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Ka Wai Cheung v Connor Benzey | 60% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Antoni Kowalski v Fergal Quinn | 75% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Liam Highfield v Hammad Miah | 67% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Lyu Haotian v Alfie Burden | 54% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Marco Fu v On Yee Ng | 76% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Gao Yang v Andrew Higginson | 57% | L |
| 2026-07-20 | Stan Moody v Iulian Boiko | 69% | L |
| 2026-07-20 | Tom Ford v Deng Haohui | 73% | L |
| 2026-07-20 | Zak Surety v Craig Steadman | 68% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Jiang Jun v Robbie Williams | 52% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Michael Holt v Ross Muir | 63% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Fan Zhengyi v Jimmy White | 77% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Jamie Rhys Clarke v Alexander Ursenbacher | 52% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Stuart Carrington v Mateusz Baranowski | 56% | L |
| 2026-07-20 | Aaron Hill v Yao Pengcheng | 58% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Ryan Day v Ashley Hugill | 69% | L |
| 2026-07-20 | Scott Donaldson v Wang Xinbo | 63% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Matthew Stevens v Ben Mertens | 53% | L |
| 2026-07-20 | Luca Brecel v Julien Leclercq | 67% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Ishpreet Singh Chadha v Liam Davies | 54% | L |
| 2026-07-20 | Jimmy Robertson v Gong Chenzhi | 71% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | Liu Hongyu v Artemijs Zizins | 59% | W |
| 2026-07-19 | Craig Steadman v Liam Graham | 55% | W |
| 2026-07-19 | Liam Pullen v Deng Haohui | 65% | L |
| 2026-07-19 | Liu Wenwei v Huang Jiahao | 56% | L |
| 2026-07-19 | Louis Heathcote v Wang Xinbo | 62% | L |
| 2026-07-19 | Artemijs Zizins v Oliver Brown | 68% | W |
| 2026-07-19 | Andrew Higginson v Oliver Sykes | 54% | W |
⬇ Download the full record (CSV — opens in Excel / Sheets) · showing the most recent 30 of 46