Altora Analysis
Calibrated model analysis, not tips. Validated out-of-sample, tracked in the open.
Today · 2026-09-04
Model win probability for today's matches — not tips. These settle into the record below.
Model updated 22 July 2026: published probabilities now blend the Elo rating with the market opening price through a gradient-boosted calibration layer, validated out-of-sample before switching. The record below spans both model versions.
Model validation · 5,489 out-of-sample matches · to 2026-07-25
Refreshed 26 July 2026 under a documented, reproducible protocol (rating engine + serving calibration, tested on matches from 2024 onward). It replaces an earlier snapshot whose producing script was lost — we rebuilt the harness rather than carry numbers we could no longer verify.
These are matches the model never trained on. It picks the winner about six in ten — and, more importantly, its probabilities are calibrated: when it says 71%, it happens about 71% of the time.
Reliability — model probability predicted vs what actually happened
The two bars line up on every band — that's calibration. On raw pick accuracy the model even edges the market. Not sharper on price, but demonstrably accurate, shown in the open.
The live record · every pick since going public
Every pick is logged when the exchange market opens and settles here, wins and losses alike. The validation above is the model's accuracy over hundreds of past matches.
| Date | Model pick | Prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | John Higgins v Thanawat Tirapongpaiboon | 83% | W |
| 2026-09-03 | Judd Trump v Elliot Slessor | 74% | W |
| 2026-09-03 | Zhang Anda v Stan Moody | 56% | L |
| 2026-09-03 | Aaron Hill v Wang Xinbo | 61% | W |
| 2026-09-03 | David Gilbert v Liam Davies | 60% | W |
| 2026-09-03 | Long Zehuang v David Grace | 50% | W |
| 2026-09-03 | Zhao Xintong v Michael Holt | 83% | W |
| 2026-09-03 | Fan Zhengyi v Ross Muir | 61% | W |
| 2026-09-02 | Stan Moody v Yao Pengcheng | 66% | W |
| 2026-09-02 | Mark Selby v Lei Peifan | 79% | W |
| 2026-09-02 | Fan Zhengyi v Matthew Stevens | 61% | W |
| 2026-09-02 | Long Zehuang v Ashley Carty | 63% | W |
| 2026-09-02 | Judd Trump v Ricky Walden | 83% | W |
| 2026-09-02 | Jamie Jones v Wang Xinbo | 54% | L |
| 2026-09-02 | Shaun Murphy v David Gilbert | 58% | L |
| 2026-09-02 | Ross Muir v Bai Yulu | 66% | W |
| 2026-09-02 | Zak Surety v David Grace | 58% | L |
| 2026-09-02 | Aaron Hill v Ben Mertens | 59% | W |
| 2026-09-02 | John Higgins v Noppon Saengkham | 64% | W |
| 2026-09-02 | Zhao Xintong v Daniel Wells | 81% | W |
| 2026-09-02 | Lyu Haotian v Duane Jones | 68% | W |
| 2026-09-02 | Ding Junhui v Iulian Boiko | 68% | L |
| 2026-09-02 | Jack Lisowski v Ishpreet Singh Chadha | 61% | W |
| 2026-09-02 | Pang Junxu v Mark Joyce | 75% | L |
| 2026-09-02 | Kyren Wilson v Liam Highfield | 79% | L |
| 2026-09-02 | Chang Bingyu v Jak Jones | 54% | L |
| 2026-09-02 | He Guoqiang v Artemijs Zizins | 56% | L |
| 2026-09-01 | Jordan Brown v Mark Joyce | 55% | L |
| 2026-09-01 | He Guoqiang v Gong Chenzhi | 64% | W |
| 2026-09-01 | Jackson Page v Jimmy Robertson | 56% | W |
⬇ Download the full record (CSV — opens in Excel / Sheets) · showing the most recent 30 of 266