Altora Analysis
Calibrated model analysis, not tips. Validated out-of-sample, tracked in the open.
Today · 2026-10-19
Model win probability for today's matches — not tips. These settle into the record below.
Model updated 22 July 2026: published probabilities now blend the Elo rating with the market opening price through a gradient-boosted calibration layer, validated out-of-sample before switching. The record below spans both model versions.
Model validation · 5,489 out-of-sample matches · to 2026-07-25
Refreshed 26 July 2026 under a documented, reproducible protocol (rating engine + serving calibration, tested on matches from 2024 onward). It replaces an earlier snapshot whose producing script was lost — we rebuilt the harness rather than carry numbers we could no longer verify.
These are matches the model never trained on. It picks the winner about six in ten — and, more importantly, its probabilities are calibrated: when it says 71%, it happens about 71% of the time.
Reliability — model probability predicted vs what actually happened
The two bars line up on every band — that's calibration. On raw pick accuracy the model even edges the market. Not sharper on price, but demonstrably accurate, shown in the open.
The live record · every pick since going public
Every pick is logged when the exchange market opens and settles here, wins and losses alike. The validation above is the model's accuracy over hundreds of past matches.
| Date | Model pick | Prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 voided match(es) shown greyed below — kept on the record, excluded from the accuracy figures (no result to score). | |||
| 2026-10-19 | Pang Junxu v Alfie Burden | 67% | W |
| 2026-10-19 | Chris Wakelin v Jamie Jones | 74% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Xiao Guodong v Sam Craigie | 63% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | SI Jiahui v Wang Xinbo | 63% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Aaron Hill v Thepchaiya Un-Nooh | 52% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Anthony McGill v Stephen Maguire | 56% | W |
| 2026-10-18 | Jack Lisowski v Huang Jiahao | 72% | W |
| 2026-10-18 | Gary Wilson v Mateusz Baranowski | 72% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Mark Selby v Louis Heathcote | 80% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Hossein Vafaei v Matthew Selt | 61% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Joe OConnor v Matthew Stevens | 63% | W |
| 2026-10-18 | Neil Robertson v Ricky Walden | 65% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Ali Carter v Xu Si | 63% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Shaun Murphy v Liam Davies | 64% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Elliot Slessor v He Guoqiang | 62% | VOID |
| 2026-10-04 | Wu Yize v Yuan Sijun | 77% | W |
| 2026-10-03 | Yuan Sijun v Jimmy Robertson | 58% | W |
| 2026-10-03 | Judd Trump v Wu Yize | 63% | L |
| 2026-10-02 | Chris Wakelin v Jimmy Robertson | 62% | L |
| 2026-10-02 | Judd Trump v Mark Selby | 60% | W |
| 2026-10-02 | Yuan Sijun v Michael Holt | 61% | W |
| 2026-10-02 | Wu Yize v Shaun Murphy | 53% | W |
| 2026-10-01 | Jimmy Robertson v Scott Donaldson | 53% | W |
| 2026-10-01 | Mark Selby v Stephen Maguire | 76% | W |
| 2026-10-01 | Neil Robertson v Chris Wakelin | 62% | L |
| 2026-10-01 | Kyren Wilson v Michael Holt | 78% | L |
| 2026-10-01 | Shaun Murphy v Elliot Slessor | 72% | W |
| 2026-10-01 | Wu Yize v Ricky Walden | 71% | W |
| 2026-10-01 | Judd Trump v SI Jiahui | 78% | W |
| 2026-10-01 | Yuan Sijun v Zak Surety | 60% | W |
⬇ Download the full record (CSV — opens in Excel / Sheets) · showing the most recent 30 of 472