Altora Analysis

🏉 RUGBY — ACCURACY & RECORD

Union & League · calibrated model analysis, not tips. Tracked in the open.

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Today · 2026-09-04

Today's model reads

Model win probability for today's matches — not tips. These settle into the record below.

Agen v CA Brive
63% · mkt 66%
Aurillac v US Dax
57% · mkt 72%
Grenoble FC v Montauban
66%
Narbonne v Nevers
68% · mkt 60%
US Oyonnax v Biarritz Olympique
90%
Valence Romans v Angouleme
76%
Dolphins v Gold Coast Tit
72% · mkt 75%
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Sydney Rooster
85% · mkt 89%
Toulouse Olympique v Hull FC
57%
Hull Kingston Rovers v Huddersfield Giants
73% · mkt 72%
Leigh Leopards v St Helens
72% · mkt 77%

Model validation · out-of-sample · to 2026-07-19

Two codes, two different models

Union and league are validated and published separately, because they are built differently. Union uses full match scores and stable team identifiers from a sports-data API, so its ratings incorporate winning margins and recent scoring form. League (NRL, Super League) has no such feed — its ratings are built from exchange results, which record only who won. That is why the two accuracies differ, and we would rather show you two honest numbers than one blended one. On both codes the market is sharper than the model — it sees team news we can't — and we say so openly.

Rugby Union

Data: API-Sports (full scores, stable team ids) · Method: Margin-of-victory Elo + score-derived form, logistic head

74%model pick accuracy
78%market pick accuracy
0.180model brier
0.161market brier

2,325 out-of-sample matches to 2026-07-19 · market comparison on 1,302 matched liquid games (model 72.9% there) — api_market_compare.py, 2026-07-18

28%
34%
95
43%
43%
196
59%
62%
445
73%
73%
779
87%
87%
788

Rugby League

Data: Betfair exchange history · Method: Winner-only Elo (Betfair results carry no scores)

65%model pick accuracy
69%market pick accuracy
0.219model brier
0.198market brier

1,318 out-of-sample matches to 2026-07-17

29%
28%
133
43%
40%
269
58%
55%
404
72%
71%
371
84%
80%
123

Reliability bars — model probability predicted vs what actually happened

The bars line up on every band for both codes — honestly calibrated, not as sharp as the market, and we say so. Analysis in the open, not tips.

The live record · every pick since going public · 131 settled

The live record — split by code

Two different models, so two separate records. Nothing deleted — wins and losses, every one. The validation above is each model's accuracy over thousands of past matches.

🏉 Rugby League — live record

103settled
66%model pick hit
0.213model brier
0.223market brier

In season now (NRL, Super League). Model updated 22 July 2026: league probabilities now blend the Elo rating with the market opening price through a gradient-boosted calibration layer, validated out-of-sample before switching; this record spans both versions.

DateModel pickProbResult
2026-09-03Canterbury Bulldogs Wom v Brisbane Bronc71%L
2026-09-03Bradford Bulls v Castleford Tigers62%W
2026-08-30Cronulla Shark v Parramatta Eels69%L
2026-08-29Sydney Rooster v Dolphins65%L
2026-08-29North Queensland Cowboys v Wests Tigers78%W
2026-08-29Wakefield Trinity v York Knights76%W
2026-08-29Warrington Wolves v Hull FC65%W
2026-08-29Toulouse Olympique v Bradford Bulls66%W
2026-08-28Manly Sea Eagles v St George72%W
2026-08-28Penrith Panthers v Canterbury Bulldogs Wom77%W
2026-08-28St Helens v Leeds Rhinos51%L
2026-08-28Leigh Leopards v Huddersfield Giants69%L
2026-08-28Castleford Tigers v Catalans Dragons53%L
2026-08-27Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Bronc59%W
2026-08-27Wigan Warriors v Hull Kingston Rovers95%W
2026-08-23Sydney Rooster v Wests Tigers90%L
2026-08-23Warrington Wolves v Huddersfield Giants79%W
2026-08-23Leeds Rhinos v York Knights75%W
2026-08-22New Zealand Warriors v South Sydney Rabbitohs57%W
2026-08-22Canterbury Bulldogs Wom v St George66%W
2026-08-22St Helens v Castleford Tigers78%W
2026-08-22Hull Kingston Rovers v Toulouse Olympique87%L
2026-08-22Catalans Dragons v Hull FC68%L
2026-08-21Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Bronc77%L
2026-08-21Dolphins v Parramatta Eels79%W
2026-08-21Wigan Warriors v Wakefield Trinity84%W
2026-08-21Leigh Leopards v Bradford Bulls88%W
2026-08-20Penrith Panthers v Melbourne Storm66%W
2026-08-18Hull Kingston Rovers v Warrington Wolves70%L
2026-08-16Wests Tigers v St George53%L

🏉 Rugby Union — live record

28settled
57%model pick hit
0.261model brier
0.171market brier

Internationals in season; club competitions resume September.

DateModel pickProbResult
2026-09-03Colomiers v Provence Rugby70%L
2026-08-30Boland Cavaliers v Griquas56%L
2026-08-29Pumas v Cheetahs68%W
2026-08-28Sharks v Bulls78%W
2026-08-28CA Brive v Valence Romans78%W
2026-08-27Colomiers v Angouleme56%L
2026-08-27US Oyonnax v Beziers50%W
2026-08-27Grenoble FC v Aurillac75%W
2026-08-27Nevers v Montauban83%L
2026-08-27Provence Rugby v Agen75%W
2026-08-27US Dax v Narbonne84%W
2026-08-23Cheetahs v Boland Cavaliers62%W
2026-08-21Pumas v Griquas51%L
2026-08-21Sharks v Lions75%W
2026-08-16Bulls v Cheetahs82%L
2026-08-14Griquas v Sharks83%W
2026-08-14Lions v Boland Cavaliers86%L
2026-08-08Bulls v Pumas79%L
2026-08-08Griquas v Lions77%W
2026-08-08Sharks v Boland Cavaliers79%W
2026-08-02Boland Cavaliers v Pumas66%L
2026-08-01Lions v Bulls68%W
2026-07-31Griquas v Cheetahs85%W
2026-07-25Griquas v Bulls62%W
2026-07-25Lions v Pumas72%W
2026-07-24Sharks v Cheetahs60%L
2026-07-19Bulls v Boland Cavaliers67%L
2026-07-19Lions v Cheetahs58%L

⬇ Download the full record (CSV — opens in Excel / Sheets) · showing the most recent 60 of 131