Altora Analysis

🏉 RUGBY — ACCURACY & RECORD

Union & League · calibrated model analysis, not tips. Tracked in the open.

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Model validation · out-of-sample · to 2026-07-19

Two codes, two different models

Union and league are validated and published separately, because they are built differently. Union uses full match scores and stable team identifiers from a sports-data API, so its ratings incorporate winning margins and recent scoring form. League (NRL, Super League) has no such feed — its ratings are built from exchange results, which record only who won. That is why the two accuracies differ, and we would rather show you two honest numbers than one blended one. On both codes the market is sharper than the model — it sees team news we can't — and we say so openly.

Rugby Union

Data: API-Sports (full scores, stable team ids) · Method: Margin-of-victory Elo + score-derived form, logistic head

74%model pick accuracy
78%market pick accuracy
0.180model brier
0.161market brier

2,325 out-of-sample matches to 2026-07-19 · market comparison on 1,302 matched liquid games (model 72.9% there) — api_market_compare.py, 2026-07-18

28%
34%
95
43%
43%
196
59%
62%
445
73%
73%
779
87%
87%
788

Rugby League

Data: Betfair exchange history · Method: Winner-only Elo (Betfair results carry no scores)

65%model pick accuracy
69%market pick accuracy
0.219model brier
0.198market brier

1,318 out-of-sample matches to 2026-07-17

29%
28%
133
43%
40%
269
58%
55%
404
72%
71%
371
84%
80%
123

Reliability bars — model probability predicted vs what actually happened

The bars line up on every band for both codes — honestly calibrated, not as sharp as the market, and we say so. Analysis in the open, not tips.

The live record · every pick since going public · 309 settled

The live record — split by code

Two different models, so two separate records. Nothing deleted — wins and losses, every one. The validation above is each model's accuracy over thousands of past matches.

🏉 Rugby League — live record

131settled
65%model pick hit
0.213model brier
0.220market brier

In season now (NRL, Super League). Model updated 22 July 2026: league probabilities now blend the Elo rating with the market opening price through a gradient-boosted calibration layer, validated out-of-sample before switching; this record spans both versions.

DateModel pickProbResult
2026-10-03Warrington Wolves v Wakefield Trinity63%L
2026-09-26Wigan Warriors v Wakefield Trinity78%L
2026-09-25Dolphins v Sydney Rooster61%L
2026-09-25Leeds Rhinos v Warrington Wolves56%L
2026-09-19Sydney Rooster v Cronulla Shark69%W
2026-09-19Warrington Wolves v Hull Kingston Rovers58%W
2026-09-18Wakefield Trinity v Leigh Leopards59%W
2026-09-13Penrith Panthers v Sydney Rooster71%W
2026-09-12New Zealand Warriors v Dolphins63%L
2026-09-12Cronulla Shark v North Queensland Cowboys72%W
2026-09-12Huddersfield Giants v Castleford Tigers64%W
2026-09-11Warrington Wolves v Toulouse Olympique59%W
2026-09-11Hull Kingston Rovers v St Helens53%L
2026-09-11Wigan Warriors v Catalans Dragons95%W
2026-09-11Leeds Rhinos v Hull FC84%L
2026-09-11Leigh Leopards v Wakefield Trinity64%L
2026-09-10York Knights v Bradford Bulls67%W
2026-09-06Penrith Panthers v Wests Tigers90%W
2026-09-05North Queensland Cowboys v Canberra Raiders64%L
2026-09-05Melbourne Storm v Cronulla Shark68%W
2026-09-05Wakefield Trinity v Warrington Wolves55%W
2026-09-05Catalans Dragons v York Knights73%L
2026-09-05Leeds Rhinos v Wigan Warriors58%L
2026-09-04Dolphins v Gold Coast Tit72%W
2026-09-04South Sydney Rabbitohs v Sydney Rooster85%W
2026-09-04Toulouse Olympique v Hull FC57%W
2026-09-04Hull Kingston Rovers v Huddersfield Giants73%W
2026-09-04Leigh Leopards v St Helens72%W
2026-09-03Canterbury Bulldogs Wom v Brisbane Bronc71%L
2026-09-03Bradford Bulls v Castleford Tigers62%W

🏉 Rugby Union — live record

178settled
69%model pick hit
0.203model brier
0.175market brier

Internationals in season; club competitions resume September.

DateModel pickProbResult
6 voided match(es) shown greyed below — kept on the record, excluded from the accuracy figures (no result to score).
2026-10-18Northampton Saints v Cardiff Rugby91%W
2026-10-18Stade Toulousain v Exeter Chiefs90%W
2026-10-18Canterbury v Taranaki60%W
2026-10-18Aviron Bayonnais v Cheetahs73%W
2026-10-18Castres Olympique v Benetton73%W
2026-10-18Harlequins v Vannes61%W
2026-10-18Section Paloise v Leicester Tigers75%W
2026-10-17Stade Rochelais v Lions83%W
2026-10-17Scarlets v Newcastle Red Bulls87%W
2026-10-17Ulster v Zebre68%W
2026-10-17Bath v Montpellier76%L
2026-10-17Leinster v Clermont56%W
2026-10-17Munster v Racing 9272%W
2026-10-17Glasgow Warriors v Sale Sharks51%W
2026-10-17Stormers v Bristol81%W
2026-10-17CA Brive v Grenoble FC84%L
2026-10-17Connacht v Saracens65%W
2026-10-17Lyon v Sharks71%VOID
2026-10-16Northland v Otago53%W
2026-10-16Dragons v USA Perpignan63%W
2026-10-16Edinburgh v RC Toulonnais66%L
2026-10-16Beziers v Aurillac75%L
2026-10-16Colomiers v Narbonne89%W
2026-10-16Nevers v Agen51%L
2026-10-16US Dax v Montauban89%W
2026-10-16US Oyonnax v Valence Romans87%W
2026-10-16Biarritz Olympique v Angouleme80%VOID
2026-10-16Gloucester v Bordeaux Begles56%VOID
2026-10-11Exeter Chiefs v Newcastle Red Bulls95%W
2026-10-11Sale Sharks v Harlequins67%W

⬇ Download the full record (CSV — opens in Excel / Sheets) · showing the most recent 60 of 309