Altora Analysis

🏉 RUGBY — ACCURACY & RECORD

Union & League · calibrated model analysis, not tips. Tracked in the open.

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Model validation · out-of-sample · to 2026-07-19

Two codes, two different models

Union and league are validated and published separately, because they are built differently. Union uses full match scores and stable team identifiers from a sports-data API, so its ratings incorporate winning margins and recent scoring form. League (NRL, Super League) has no such feed — its ratings are built from exchange results, which record only who won. That is why the two accuracies differ, and we would rather show you two honest numbers than one blended one. On both codes the market is sharper than the model — it sees team news we can't — and we say so openly.

Rugby Union

Data: API-Sports (full scores, stable team ids) · Method: Margin-of-victory Elo + score-derived form, logistic head

74%model pick accuracy
78%market pick accuracy
0.180model brier
0.161market brier

2,325 out-of-sample matches to 2026-07-19 · market comparison on 1,302 matched liquid games (model 72.9% there) — api_market_compare.py, 2026-07-18

28%
34%
95
43%
43%
196
59%
62%
445
73%
73%
779
87%
87%
788

Rugby League

Data: Betfair exchange history · Method: Winner-only Elo (Betfair results carry no scores)

65%model pick accuracy
69%market pick accuracy
0.219model brier
0.198market brier

1,318 out-of-sample matches to 2026-07-17

29%
28%
133
43%
40%
269
58%
55%
404
72%
71%
371
84%
80%
123

Reliability bars — model probability predicted vs what actually happened

The bars line up on every band for both codes — honestly calibrated, not as sharp as the market, and we say so. Analysis in the open, not tips.

The live record · every pick since going public

The live record

24settled
67%model pick hit
0.236model brier
0.245market brier

In season now (NRL, Super League, internationals). Nothing deleted — wins and losses, every one. The validation above is the model's accuracy over thousands of past matches.

DateModel pickProbResult
2026-07-19Bulls v Boland Cavaliers UNION67%L
2026-07-19Lions v Cheetahs UNION58%L
2026-07-17Leeds Rhinos v Castleford Tigers LEAGUE74%L
2026-07-16NZ Warriors v St George LEAGUE55%W
2026-07-16Canterbury v Wests Tigers LEAGUE63%W
2026-07-16Hull Kingston Rovers v Warrington Wolves LEAGUE55%L
2026-07-16Leigh Leopards v Hull FC LEAGUE67%W
2026-07-16Toulouse Olympique XIII v York Knights LEAGUE56%W
2026-07-16Gold Coast v Manly LEAGUE54%W
2026-07-16Dolphins v North Queensland LEAGUE63%W
2026-07-15Cronulla v Newcastle LEAGUE65%W
2026-07-15Sydney v Melbourne LEAGUE57%W
2026-07-15Wigan Warriors v Huddersfield Giants LEAGUE85%W
2026-07-15St Helens v Catalans Dragons LEAGUE73%W
2026-07-15Canberra v South Sydney LEAGUE55%W
2026-07-14Penrith v Brisbane LEAGUE60%L
2026-07-14Wakefield Trinity v Bradford Bulls LEAGUE67%W
2026-07-11Leigh Leopards v Castleford Tigers LEAGUE82%W
2026-07-11Hull Kingston Rovers v Wakefield Trinity LEAGUE76%L
2026-07-11Leeds Rhinos v Catalans Dragons LEAGUE60%W
2026-07-11South Sydney v Newcastle LEAGUE63%W
2026-07-11Manly v North Queensland LEAGUE51%L
2026-07-11Melbourne v Gold Coast LEAGUE73%W
2026-07-11St Helens v Toulouse Olympique XIII LEAGUE84%L

⬇ Download the full record (CSV — opens in Excel / Sheets)

Model updated 22 July 2026: published probabilities now blend the Elo rating with the market opening price through a gradient-boosted calibration layer, validated out-of-sample before switching. The record below spans both model versions.