Altora Analysis
National-team football · calibrated model analysis, not tips. Tracked in the open.
Coming up · model vs market (de-vigged) · next 7 days
| Kick-off (UK) | Match | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 03 Oct 13:00 | Sri Lanka v Djibouti Friendlies | 51% mkt 35% | 28% mkt 27% | 20% mkt 37% |
The live record · every logged fixture since 21 Sep 2026
Log loss scores the whole three-way forecast (home / draw / away), not just the pick — lower is better, and it punishes confident misses. Both columns are scored on the same matches. The market is currently ahead of the model on log loss. Market pick hit rate on the same matches: 62%. A sample this small is mostly noise.
| Date | Match | Model pick | Market | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Oct | Mexico v Chile Friendlies | Mexico 69% | 59% | 0-2 | L |
| 07 Oct | French Guyana v Belize CONCACAF Nations League | French Guyana 64% | 43% | 1-0 | W |
| 07 Oct | USA v Canada Friendlies | USA 48% | 47% | 1-0 | W |
| 07 Oct | Colombia v Peru Friendlies | Colombia 78% | 67% | 2-0 | W |
| 07 Oct | Argentina v Benin Friendlies | Argentina 93% | 94% | 3-0 | W |
| 07 Oct | Antigua and Barbuda v Aruba CONCACAF Nations League | Aruba 42% | 28% | 3-2 | L |
| 06 Oct | St. Vincent / Grenadines v Sint Maarten CONCACAF Nations League | St. Vincent / Grenadines 67% | 60% | 4-0 | W |
| 06 Oct | Saint Martin v Bahamas CONCACAF Nations League | Saint Martin 80% | 92% | 6-0 | W |
| 06 Oct | Angola v Malawi AFCON Q | Angola 75% | 69% | 3-1 | W |
| 06 Oct | Scotland v Slovenia Nations League | Scotland 50% | 40% | 1-2 | L |
| 06 Oct | England v Czechia Nations League | England 83% | 78% | 3-0 | W |
| 06 Oct | Croatia v Spain Nations League | Spain 71% | 67% | 1-2 | W |
| 06 Oct | Moldova v Slovakia Nations League | Slovakia 77% | 66% | 0-4 | W |
| 06 Oct | Switzerland v FYR Macedonia Nations League | Switzerland 88% | 83% | 3-0 | W |
| 06 Oct | Luxembourg v Bulgaria Nations League | Luxembourg 52% | 46% | 0-2 | L |
| 06 Oct | Estonia v Iceland Nations League | Iceland 61% | 58% | 0-0 | L |
| 06 Oct | Belarus v Finland Nations League | Belarus 44% | 26% | 1-0 | W |
| 06 Oct | Albania v San Marino Nations League | Albania 96% | 93% | 2-1 | W |
| 06 Oct | Saudi Arabia v United Arab Emirates Gulf Cup | Saudi Arabia 42% | 38% | 2-0 | W |
| 06 Oct | Jordan v Venezuela Friendlies | Jordan 48% | 47% | 0-0 | L |
| 06 Oct | Algeria v Niger Friendlies | Algeria 85% | 75% | 2-1 | W |
| 06 Oct | Russia v Nigeria Friendlies | Russia 56% | 52% | 3-3 | L |
| 06 Oct | Kazakhstan v Faroe Islands Nations League | Kazakhstan 40% | 39% | 2-2 | L |
| 06 Oct | India v Uruguay Friendlies | Uruguay 77% | 93% | 1-6 | W |
| 06 Oct | China v Tajikistan Friendlies | China 47% | 54% | 0-1 | L |
| 06 Oct | South Korea v Uzbekistan Friendlies | South Korea 47% | 56% | 2-0 | W |
| 06 Oct | Honduras v Jamaica CONCACAF Nations League | Jamaica 39% | 24% | 1-1 | L |
| 06 Oct | Bermuda v Barbados CONCACAF Nations League | Barbados 39% | 53% | 1-2 | W |
| 06 Oct | Guatemala v Suriname CONCACAF Nations League | Guatemala 42% | 42% | 1-0 | W |
| 06 Oct | Grenada v Bonaire CONCACAF Nations League | Grenada 59% | 65% | 1-4 | L |
| 05 Oct | Martinique v El Salvador CONCACAF Nations League | Martinique 42% | 38% | 1-1 | L |
| 05 Oct | Cuba v St. Kitts and Nevis CONCACAF Nations League | Cuba 43% | 53% | 2-2 | L |
| 05 Oct | Guadeloupe v St. Lucia CONCACAF Nations League | Guadeloupe 63% | 27% | 0-1 | L |
| 05 Oct | Ukraine v Hungary Nations League | Ukraine 50% | 40% | 1-2 | L |
| 05 Oct | Northern Ireland v Georgia Nations League | Georgia 40% | 40% | 0-0 | L |
| 05 Oct | France v Belgium Nations League | France 58% | 61% | 4-1 | W |
| 05 Oct | Romania v Sweden Nations League | Sweden 53% | 51% | 0-1 | W |
| 05 Oct | Italy v Türkiye Nations League | Italy 56% | 59% | 3-1 | W |
| 05 Oct | Bosnia & Herzegovina v Poland Nations League | Poland 47% | 44% | 1-0 | L |
| 05 Oct | Montenegro v Armenia Nations League | Montenegro 64% | 64% | 0-0 | L |
| 05 Oct | Liechtenstein v Gibraltar Friendlies | Gibraltar 51% | 32% | 0-2 | W |
| 05 Oct | Cyprus v Latvia Nations League | Cyprus 46% | 56% | 2-1 | W |
| 05 Oct | Mauritius v Sri Lanka Friendlies | Mauritius 48% | 49% | 2-3 | L |
| 05 Oct | Uganda v Congo DR Friendlies | Congo DR 47% | 49% | 1-1 | L |
| 05 Oct | Nicaragua v Dominican Republic CONCACAF Nations League | Dominican Republic 46% | 55% | 1-2 | W |
| 05 Oct | Costa Rica v Haiti CONCACAF Nations League | Costa Rica 39% | 44% | 2-0 | W |
| 05 Oct | Aruba v Anguilla CONCACAF Nations League | Aruba 79% | 86% | 3-2 | W |
| 04 Oct | Trinidad and Tobago v Curaçao CONCACAF Nations League | Curaçao 57% | 64% | 1-1 | L |
| 04 Oct | Puerto Rico v Cayman Islands CONCACAF Nations League | Puerto Rico 82% | 88% | 1-0 | W |
| 04 Oct | Bahamas v US Virgin Islands CONCACAF Nations League | US Virgin Islands 39% | 64% | 2-3 | W |
| 04 Oct | Turks and Caicos Islands v British Virgin Islands CONCACAF Nations League | Turks and Caicos Islands 58% | 52% | 3-0 | W |
| 04 Oct | Guyana v Dominica CONCACAF Nations League | Guyana 78% | 83% | 8-1 | W |
| 04 Oct | Rep. Of Ireland v Israel Nations League | Rep. Of Ireland 62% | 47% | 1-1 | L |
| 04 Oct | Wales v Denmark Nations League | Denmark 61% | 46% | 0-1 | W |
| 04 Oct | Netherlands v Serbia Nations League | Netherlands 78% | 40% | 2-1 | W |
| 04 Oct | Greece v Germany Nations League | Germany 58% | 48% | 0-0 | L |
| 04 Oct | Portugal v Norway Nations League | Portugal 58% | 40% | 2-1 | W |
| 04 Oct | Egypt v South Africa Friendlies | Egypt 58% | 55% | 0-1 | L |
| 04 Oct | Kosovo v Austria Nations League | Austria 61% | 40% | 1-1 | L |
| 04 Oct | Malta v Andorra Nations League | Malta 67% | 55% | 1-0 | W |
Model validation · out-of-sample · 2,594 matches to 2026-09-21
Data: API-Football, 25 senior men's competitions (World Cup, Euros, Nations League, continental cups, qualifiers, friendlies) · Method: Elo rating with adaptive K and goal-margin scaling, 3-way logistic layer; fit to 2023, scored 2024 onward.
Reliability — the model's favourite at each confidence band: predicted vs actual
What this does not show: a comparison with the bookmakers. The data provider keeps no historical odds for international matches, so the only honest market test is a forward one — the live record below, where every fixture is logged with the market price at the time.