Altora Analysis
Calibrated 3-way probabilities · betting record starts with pre-registered rules.
Betting record · starts with pre-registered rules
The model is validated: a true 3-way model (home / draw / away), 72% out-of-sample on 38.6k held-out games — the two-way winner model scores 76% on decisive games. What it has not yet earned is a betting record — and we won't publish one until it does.
Our betting thresholds are being forward-tested privately until leagues restart in September. The public betting record starts after that, with the rules published before the first bet — not fitted after it.