Altora Analysis
CS2 · LoL · Dota 2 — calibrated model analysis, not tips. Tracked in the open.
Model validation · 13,507 out-of-sample matches · to 2026-07-04
These are matches the model never trained on. It picks the winner 62% of the time and its probabilities are calibrated. On esports the market is sharper than the model — it sees team news (rotations, injuries, rested players) that a results-based model can't — so we show that gap openly rather than hide it.
Reliability — model probability predicted vs what actually happened
The bars line up on every band — the model is honestly calibrated. It isn't as sharp as the market on esports, and we say so. Analysis in the open, not tips.
Since 21 July 2026, Dota 2 matches are priced by a dedicated Dota model (rating built from 114,000+ professional games with margin-of-victory weighting). CS2 and League of Legends continue on the shared model. The validation numbers above pre-date this change; the Dota model's own record accrues in the live table below and will be reported separately once the sample is meaningful.
The live record · every pick since going public
Esports runs year-round (CS2, LoL, Dota 2). Nothing deleted — wins and losses, every one. The validation above is the model's accuracy over thousands of past matches.
| Date | Model pick | Prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | m80 v ninjas in pyjamas | 57% | L |
| 2026-07-21 | astralis v team nemesis | 64% | W |
| 2026-07-21 | cybershoke esports v 33 | 51% | W |
| 2026-07-21 | mouz v nuclear tigeres | 70% | W |
| 2026-07-21 | oddik v red feet | 73% | W |
| 2026-07-20 | walczaki v just_players | 60% | L |
| 2026-07-20 | 1w team v arcred | 61% | W |
| 2026-07-19 | 33 v basement boys | 69% | W |
| 2026-07-19 | geng v t1 | 54% | W |
| 2026-07-19 | karmine corp v dplus kia | 67% | L |
| 2026-07-19 | bb team v parivision | 63% | L |
| 2026-07-18 | t1 v karmine corp | 60% | L |
| 2026-07-18 | bb team v vici gaming | 73% | W |
| 2026-07-17 | 1w team v genone | 60% | W |
| 2026-07-17 | hanwha life esports v t1 | 51% | L |
| 2026-07-17 | game hunters v alka gaming | 58% | W |
| 2026-07-17 | bilibili gaming v dplus kia | 70% | L |
| 2026-07-17 | anyones legend v karmine corp | 56% | L |
| 2026-07-17 | bb team v nigma galaxy | 68% | W |
| 2026-07-17 | bestia academy v magicos | 63% | W |
| 2026-07-16 | Just_Players v WW Team | 52% | W |
| 2026-07-16 | Bilibili Gaming v T1 | 51% | W |
| 2026-07-16 | Anyones Legend v G2 esports | 51% | W |
| 2026-07-16 | Hanwha Life Esports v Jd Gaming | 65% | W |
| 2026-07-15 | Lavked v Just_Players | 54% | L |
| 2026-07-15 | Sentinels v Secret Whales | 53% | W |
| 2026-07-15 | Bilibili Gaming v Movistar KOI | 63% | W |
| 2026-07-15 | The Last Resort v Enjoy | 59% | W |
| 2026-07-15 | Dplus KIA v Anyones Legend | 67% | L |
| 2026-07-15 | LYON v Jd Gaming | 51% | L |
⬇ Download the full record (CSV — opens in Excel / Sheets) · showing the most recent 30 of 39
Model updated 22 July 2026: published probabilities now blend the Elo rating with the market opening price through a gradient-boosted calibration layer, validated out-of-sample before switching. The record below spans both model versions.