Altora Analysis

🎯 DARTS — ACCURACY & RECORD

Calibrated model analysis, not tips. Validated out-of-sample, tracked in the open.

Today · 2026-07-21

Today's model reads

Model win probability for today's matches — not tips. These settle into the record below.

Stephen Bunting v Josh Rock

58% · mkt 54%

Model updated 22 July 2026: published probabilities now blend the Elo rating with the market opening price through a gradient-boosted calibration layer, validated out-of-sample before switching. The record below spans both model versions.

Model validation · 1,995 out-of-sample matches · to 2026-06-27

Is the model accurate?

These are matches the model never trained on. Two things prove accuracy: it picks the winner about two in three, and — more importantly — its probabilities are calibrated: when it says 71%, it happens 71% of the time.

65%favourite pick accuracy

0.213model brier

0.210market brier

9.41/9.31legs: pred / actual

Reliability — model probability predicted vs what actually happened

15%

18%

29%

30%

161

44%

425

58%

56%

757

71%

74%

431

87%

91%

187

The two bars line up on every band — that's calibration. Not sharper than the market (that's near-impossible), but demonstrably accurate, and shown in the open.

The live record · every pick since going public

The live record

51settled

67%model pick hit

0.228model brier

0.232market brier

Nothing deleted — wins and losses, every one. The live sample is young; the validation above is the model's accuracy over thousands of matches.

Date	Model pick	Prob	Result
2026-07-20	Ross Smith v Kevin Doets	52%	W
2026-07-20	Gerwyn Price v Martin Schindler	80%	W
2026-07-20	Luke Humphries v Cameron Menzies	90%	L
2026-07-20	Rob Cross v Danny Noppert	51%	W
2026-07-18	Josh Rock v Luke Woodhouse	56%	W
2026-07-18	Stephen Bunting v Niels Zonneveld	64%	W
2026-07-18	Luke Littler v Niko Springer	94%	W
2026-07-18	Nathan Aspinall v Joe Cullen	80%	W
2026-07-18	Chris Dobey v Dirk van Duijvenbode	65%	L
2026-07-18	Gary Anderson v Ryan Joyce	68%	W
2026-07-18	Michael van Gerwen v Andrew Gilding	67%	W
2026-07-18	Jonny Clayton v Damon Heta	68%	W
2026-07-18	Ryan Searle v William O'Connor	72%	W
2026-07-18	James Wade v Jermaine Wattimena	58%	W
2026-07-18	Gian van Veen v Krzysztof Ratajski	59%	W
2026-07-18	Wessel Nijman v Dave Chisnall	83%	W
2026-07-12	Luke Woodhouse v Jermaine Wattimena	53%	L
2026-07-12	Damon Heta v Dirk van Duijvenbode	50%	W
2026-07-12	James Wade v Sebastian Bialecki	70%	L
2026-07-12	Nathan Aspinall v Krzysztof Ratajski	60%	L
2026-07-11	Danny Noppert v Sebastian Bialecki	69%	L
2026-07-11	Jermaine Wattimena v Kim Huybrechts	57%	W
2026-07-11	Krzysztof Ratajski v Max Hopp	70%	W
2026-07-11	James Wade v Maik Kuivenhoven	80%	W
2026-07-11	Michael van Gerwen v Joe Cullen	70%	W
2026-07-11	Gian van Veen v Niko Springer	66%	W
2026-07-11	Kevin Doets v Martin Schindler	60%	W
2026-07-11	Ross Smith v Niels Zonneveld	61%	W
2026-07-11	Jermaine Wattimena v Ryan Joyce	51%	W
2026-07-11	Jonny Clayton v Luke Woodhouse	62%	L

⬇ Download the full record (CSV — opens in Excel / Sheets) · showing the most recent 30 of 51