Altora Analysis
Calibrated model analysis, not tips. Validated out-of-sample, tracked in the open.
Model updated 22 July 2026: published probabilities now blend the Elo rating with the market opening price through a gradient-boosted calibration layer, validated out-of-sample before switching. The record below spans both model versions.
Model validation · 3,373 out-of-sample matches · to 2026-07-26
Refreshed 26 July 2026 under a documented, reproducible protocol: the serving form + rating blend, priced with each competition's real match format, tested on 2024-onward matches. It replaces an earlier snapshot whose producing script was lost — we rebuilt the harness rather than carry numbers we could no longer verify.
These are matches the model never trained on. Two things prove accuracy: it picks the winner about two in three, and — more importantly — its probabilities are calibrated: when it says 71%, it happens 71% of the time.
Reliability — model probability predicted vs what actually happened
The two bars line up on every band — that's calibration. Not sharper than the market (that's near-impossible), but demonstrably accurate, and shown in the open.
The live record · every pick since going public
Nothing deleted — wins and losses, every one. The live sample is young; the validation above is the model's accuracy over thousands of matches.
| Date | Model pick | Prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 voided match(es) shown greyed below — kept on the record, excluded from the accuracy figures (no result to score). | |||
| 2026-10-18 | Gian van Veen v Brendan Dolan | 76% | W |
| 2026-10-18 | Ross Smith v Ryan Searle | 61% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Luke Woodhouse v William O'Connor | 62% | W |
| 2026-10-18 | Danny Noppert v Jermaine Wattimena | 51% | W |
| 2026-10-18 | Gerwyn Price v Niels Zonneveld | 67% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Wessel Nijman v Cristo Reyes | 55% | W |
| 2026-10-18 | Damon Heta v Martin Schindler | 56% | W |
| 2026-10-18 | Nathan Aspinall v Stephen Bunting | 61% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Gian van Veen v Ryan Searle | 64% | W |
| 2026-10-18 | Luke Woodhouse v Danny Noppert | 53% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Wessel Nijman v Niels Zonneveld | 61% | L |
| 2026-10-18 | Damon Heta v Stephen Bunting | 53% | L |
| 2026-10-17 | Karel Sedláček v Martin Schindler | 60% | L |
| 2026-10-17 | Wessel Nijman v Jeffrey de Graaf | 66% | W |
| 2026-10-17 | Luke Woodhouse v Andrew Gilding | 65% | W |
| 2026-10-17 | Ross Smith v Ryan Joyce | 65% | W |
| 2026-10-17 | Danny Noppert v Dave Chisnall | 66% | W |
| 2026-10-17 | Dirk van Duijvenbode v Ryan Searle | 50% | L |
| 2026-10-17 | Brendan Dolan v Heine Uuldriks | 55% | W |
| 2026-10-17 | Niels Zonneveld v Krzysztof Ratajski | 53% | W |
| 2026-10-17 | Gerwyn Price v Scott Williams | 75% | W |
| 2026-10-17 | Jermaine Wattimena v Jimmy van Schie | 63% | W |
| 2026-10-17 | Stephen Bunting v Cameron Menzies | 55% | W |
| 2026-10-17 | Gian van Veen v Sebastian Bialecki | 63% | W |
| 2026-10-17 | Michael van Gerwen v William O'Connor | 58% | L |
| 2026-10-17 | Jonny Clayton v Damon Heta | 61% | L |
| 2026-10-17 | Nathan Aspinall v Michael Smith | 72% | W |
| 2026-10-17 | Chris Dobey v Cristo Reyes | 55% | L |
| 2026-10-16 | Karel Sedláček v Callan Rydz | 54% | W |
| 2026-10-16 | Cameron Menzies v Nick Kenny | 68% | W |
⬇ Download the full record (CSV — opens in Excel / Sheets) · showing the most recent 30 of 378