Altora Analysis

🎯 DARTS — ACCURACY & RECORD

Calibrated model analysis, not tips. Validated out-of-sample, tracked in the open.

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Today · 2026-09-04

Today's model reads

Model win probability for today's matches — not tips. These settle into the record below.

Luke Woodhouse v Connor Scutt

65% · mkt 63%

Krzysztof Ratajski v Adam Gawlas

66% · mkt 67%

Dirk van Duijvenbode v Mario Vandenbogaerde

68% · mkt 68%

Martin Schindler v Robert Owen

57% · mkt 58%

Beau Greaves v Daryl Gurney

60% · mkt 59%

Rob Cross v Keane Barry

68% · mkt 68%

Damon Heta v Karel Sedláček

58% · mkt 59%

Niels Zonneveld v Jeffrey de Graaf

50% · mkt 50%

Model updated 22 July 2026: published probabilities now blend the Elo rating with the market opening price through a gradient-boosted calibration layer, validated out-of-sample before switching. The record below spans both model versions.

Model validation · 3,373 out-of-sample matches · to 2026-07-26

Refreshed 26 July 2026 under a documented, reproducible protocol: the serving form + rating blend, priced with each competition's real match format, tested on 2024-onward matches. It replaces an earlier snapshot whose producing script was lost — we rebuilt the harness rather than carry numbers we could no longer verify.

Is the model accurate?

These are matches the model never trained on. Two things prove accuracy: it picks the winner about two in three, and — more importantly — its probabilities are calibrated: when it says 71%, it happens 71% of the time.

62%favourite pick accuracy

0.227model brier

0.223market brier

Reliability — model probability predicted vs what actually happened

30%

28%

242

44%

915

57%

1,404

71%

70%

720

84%

96%

The two bars line up on every band — that's calibration. Not sharper than the market (that's near-impossible), but demonstrably accurate, and shown in the open.

The live record · every pick since going public

The live record

152settled

69%model pick hit

0.209model brier

0.212market brier

Nothing deleted — wins and losses, every one. The live sample is young; the validation above is the model's accuracy over thousands of matches.

Date	Model pick	Prob	Result
6 voided match(es) shown greyed below — kept on the record, excluded from the accuracy figures (no result to score).
2026-09-04	Cameron Menzies v Johan Engstrom	83%	W
2026-09-04	Andrew Gilding v David Rosi	90%	W
2026-09-04	Kim Huybrechts v Ryan Joyce	62%	L
2026-09-04	William O'Connor v Jiri Brejcha	88%	W
2026-09-04	Niko Springer v Martin Homola	86%	W
2026-09-04	Kevin Doets v Ricky Evans	66%	W
2026-09-04	Joe Cullen v Stephen Burton	67%	L
2026-09-04	Cristo Reyes v Callan Rydz	59%	L
2026-08-30	Rob Cross v Dirk van Duijvenbode	60%	L
2026-08-30	Ryan Searle v Danny Noppert	54%	L
2026-08-30	Jonny Clayton v Ross Smith	56%	L
2026-08-30	Keane Barry v Dave Chisnall	52%	L
2026-08-30	Gian van Veen v Jermaine Wattimena	60%	W
2026-08-30	Gary Anderson v Stephen Bunting	66%	W
2026-08-30	Nathan Aspinall v Michael van Gerwen	55%	W
2026-08-30	Chris Dobey v Josh Rock	56%	W
2026-08-30	Dirk van Duijvenbode v Danny Noppert	54%	L
2026-08-30	Ross Smith v Dave Chisnall	68%	W
2026-08-30	Gary Anderson v Gian van Veen	56%	W
2026-08-30	Nathan Aspinall v Chris Dobey	52%	W
2026-08-29	Ross Smith v William O'Connor	63%	W
2026-08-29	Wessel Nijman v Dave Chisnall	74%	L
2026-08-29	Jermaine Wattimena v Andrew Gilding	57%	W
2026-08-29	Danny Noppert v Ritchie Edhouse	59%	W
2026-08-29	Ryan Searle v Niko Springer	55%	W
2026-08-29	Rob Cross v Luke Woodhouse	60%	W
2026-08-29	Gary Anderson v Krzysztof Ratajski	57%	W
2026-08-29	Chris Dobey v Tom Sykes	63%	W
2026-08-29	Stephen Bunting v Jonas Masalin	82%	W
2026-08-29	Jonny Clayton v Laszlo Kadar	91%	W

⬇ Download the full record (CSV — opens in Excel / Sheets) · showing the most recent 30 of 152