Altora Analysis

🏀 BASKETBALL — ACCURACY & RECORD

Every card pick settled in public · calibrated model analysis, not tips.

Analysis only. In the secondary leagues the model's pre-registered test was a FAIL: it is recorded as less accurate than the bookmakers' prices. It is published as analysis only — probabilities and a public calibration record, no betting record and no edge claim. The NBA gets its own pre-registered verdict on 1 March 2027. Nothing is deleted.

The live record · every card pick since 27 August 2026

How often the card calls land

1,276settled

64%calls correct

67%model said

-3ppactual vs said

"Model said" is the average probability the model gave its card picks; "actual vs said" is the calibration gap — positive means the model under-stated its chances, negative means it over-stated them. Pushes (stake returned on a whole-number line) are left out.

Match result

485settled

65%calls correct

69%model said

-4ppactual vs said

Before 3 Oct 2026 · card % = model alone

231settled

66%calls correct

68%model said

-2ppactual vs said

From 3 Oct 2026 · card % = model + market blend

254settled

65%calls correct

71%model said

-6ppactual vs said

Model probability said vs happened, by band

53%

50%

58%

63%

58%

68%

65%

74%

70%

221

83%

74%

Totals

311settled

54%calls correct

60%model said

-6ppactual vs said

Model probability said vs happened, by band

53%

54%

57%

56%

62%

56%

67%

44%

Handicap

480settled

70%calls correct

69%model said

+1ppactual vs said

Before 3 Oct 2026 · card % = model alone

228settled

70%calls correct

69%model said

+1ppactual vs said

From 3 Oct 2026 · card % = model + market blend

252settled

71%calls correct

69%model said

+1ppactual vs said

Model probability said vs happened, by band

53%

41%

58%

78%

62%

65%

68%

59%

100

75%

77%

134

86%

87%

Most recent settled picks

The picks

Date	Match	Market · pick	Model	Result
19 Oct	Alvark v Akita B League	Handicap Alvark +6.5	88%	W
19 Oct	Nagasaki v Altiri Chiba B League	Handicap Nagasaki +3.5	69%	L
19 Oct	Shimane v Brave Thunders B League	Handicap Shimane +4.5	69%	W
19 Oct	Jiangsu Dragons v Shenzhen CBA	Handicap Shenzhen -1.5	68%	W
19 Oct	Ryukyu v Shiga B League	Handicap Ryukyu +3.5	68%	W
19 Oct	Anorthosis v ETHA Engomi Division A	Handicap Anorthosis +1.5	66%	L
19 Oct	Alba Berlin v Bamberg German Cup	Handicap Alba Berlin -2.5	63%	W
19 Oct	Utsunomiya Brex v Gunma B League	Handicap Gunma +2	59%	L
19 Oct	Wonju DB v KoGas KBL	Handicap Wonju DB +2.5	59%	W
19 Oct	Dynamic v Mladost Zemun First League	Handicap Mladost Zemun +1	56%	W
19 Oct	Bigua v Hebraica y Macabi Liga Uruguaya	Handicap Bigua -3.5	55%	W
19 Oct	Unifacisa v Pinheiros NBB	Handicap Pinheiros +1.5	55%	L
19 Oct	Czarni Slupsk v Ostrow Wielkopolski Energa Basket Liga	Handicap Czarni Slupsk -1	54%	L
19 Oct	Galil Elyon v Maccabi Ironi Ramat Gan Super League	Handicap Galil Elyon +1	53%	W
19 Oct	Uniao Corinthians v Cruzeiro NBB	Handicap Uniao Corinthians -2	52%	W
19 Oct	Maccabi Rishon v Hapoel HaEmek Super League	Handicap Hapoel HaEmek +2.5	52%	W
19 Oct	ZKK Kraljevo W v Spartak Subotica W 1. ZLS Women	Match result ZKK Kraljevo W	81%	W
19 Oct	Shinshu v Diamond Dolphins B League	Match result Diamond Dolphins	76%	W
19 Oct	Nassjo v Umea Basketligan	Match result Nassjo	75%	W
19 Oct	Beijing Royal Fighters v Shanghai CBA	Match result Shanghai	72%	W
19 Oct	Shimane v Brave Thunders B League	Match result Shimane	69%	W
19 Oct	Eng Tat Hornets v Siglap NBL	Match result Eng Tat Hornets	68%	W
19 Oct	Alba Berlin v Bamberg German Cup	Match result Alba Berlin	68%	W
19 Oct	Nagasaki v Altiri Chiba B League	Match result Nagasaki	66%	L
19 Oct	Jiangsu Dragons v Shenzhen CBA	Match result Shenzhen	65%	W
19 Oct	Ryukyu v Shiga B League	Match result Ryukyu	65%	W
19 Oct	Utsunomiya Brex v Gunma B League	Match result Gunma	62%	L
19 Oct	Anorthosis v ETHA Engomi Division A	Match result Anorthosis	61%	L
19 Oct	Esenler Erokspor v Anadolu Efes Basketbol Süper Ligi	Match result Anadolu Efes	59%	L
19 Oct	Bigua v Hebraica y Macabi Liga Uruguaya	Match result Bigua	59%	W
19 Oct	Wonju DB v KoGas KBL	Match result Wonju DB	58%	W
19 Oct	Dynamic v Mladost Zemun First League	Match result Mladost Zemun	57%	W
18 Oct	Fenerbahce v Petkim Spor Basketbol Süper Ligi	Handicap Fenerbahce +4.5	86%	L
18 Oct	Virtus Bologna v Scafati Lega A	Handicap Virtus Bologna +2.5	81%	W
18 Oct	Paris v Boulazac LNB	Handicap Paris +4.5	80%	W
18 Oct	Real Madrid v Bilbao ACB	Handicap Real Madrid +4.5	78%	W
18 Oct	Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks NBL	Handicap Melbourne United +4.5	74%	W
18 Oct	Flamengo v Bauru NBB	Handicap Flamengo +4.5	74%	W
18 Oct	Buducnost v Slovan Bratislava ABA League	Handicap Buducnost +4.5	74%	W
18 Oct	Valencia v Murcia ACB	Handicap Valencia -2.5	74%	W
18 Oct	Regatas v Olimpico Liga A	Handicap Regatas +4.5	74%	W
18 Oct	Astros v Mineros LNBP	Handicap Astros +2.5	72%	W
18 Oct	Le Mans v JL Bourg LNB	Handicap Le Mans -1.5	71%	L
18 Oct	Ludwigsburg v Vechta German Cup	Handicap Ludwigsburg +1.5	71%	L
18 Oct	Besiktas v Galatasaray Basketbol Süper Ligi	Handicap Besiktas -2.5	70%	W
18 Oct	Kyoto v Saga B League	Handicap Kyoto -2.5	69%	W
18 Oct	KK Bosna v Partizan Mozzart Bet ABA League	Handicap Partizan Mozzart Bet -1.5	68%	W
18 Oct	Fuerza Regia v Dorados LNBP	Handicap Fuerza Regia +3.5	67%	W
18 Oct	Rimini v Mestre Serie A2	Match result Rimini	83%	W
18 Oct	Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks NBL	Match result Melbourne United	80%	L
18 Oct	Valencia v Murcia ACB	Match result Valencia	79%	W
18 Oct	OrangeAcademy v Crailsheim Merlins Pro A	Match result Crailsheim Merlins	79%	L
18 Oct	Vojvodina Novi Sad v Cacak 94 First League	Match result Vojvodina Novi Sad	79%	W
18 Oct	Melikgazi Kayseri W v Botas W KBSL W	Match result Botas W	78%	W
18 Oct	Ibaraki Robots v Osaka B League	Match result Ibaraki Robots	78%	W
18 Oct	Flamengo v Bauru NBB	Match result Flamengo	77%	L
18 Oct	Kyoto v Saga B League	Match result Kyoto	77%	W
18 Oct	KK Bosna v Partizan Mozzart Bet ABA League	Match result Partizan Mozzart Bet	74%	W
18 Oct	Le Mans v JL Bourg LNB	Match result Le Mans	74%	W
18 Oct	Nanjing Tongxi v Guangdong CBA	Match result Guangdong	74%	L

Download every settled pick (CSV) →