Altora Analysis
Calibrated match-winner probabilities · betting record starts with pre-registered rules.
Betting record · starts with pre-registered rules
The model is validated: 70% out-of-sample accuracy on 170,000+ games, with calibrated probabilities that track the sharp Betfair close (0.84 correlation). What it has not yet earned is a betting record — and we won't publish one until it does.
Our betting thresholds are being forward-tested privately over the summer. The public betting record starts in October, with the rules published before the first bet — not fitted after it.